Talk:2005–06 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Other Basin Talkpages: Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

September 2005

Week 1

95S.INVEST

We have an invest! The season is about to start.--Holderca1 22:18, 3 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8S
83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VALUES OF 850 MB VORTICITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POT-
ENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JTWC has issued a TCFA and Meteo France is issuing advisories as Tropical Disturbance 01.--Holderca1 18:29, 5 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

November 2005

Week 1

91S.INVEST

One new invest out there. Backup Navy site currently has some information on it. -- RattleMan 05:36, 1 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 02S

92S.INVEST

And another new invest has just popped up. 91S is still active, also. -- RattleMan 02:29, 4 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY 
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Friday the 4th of November 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
  Location          :near 08S 097E
                     about 430 kilometres [230 nautical miles] 
                     north of Cocos Islands
  Central Pressure  :1006hPa
  Recent movement   :west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
  Saturday   : low
  Sunday     : low
  Monday     : moderate

REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the
west southwest next 72 hours, slowly intensifying.

-- RattleMan 00:05, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think it will be named very soon.--Momoko 06:53, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0450UTC 5 NOVEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
 At 0400UTC Tropical Low located within 20 nautical miles of
 Latitude eight decimal three south [8.3S]
 Longitude ninety seven decimal one east [97.1E]
Recent movement  : south west at 8 knots.
Maximum winds    : 30 knots.
Central pressure : 1002 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 150 nautical miles in
southern quadrants.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1600UTC 05 November: within 40 nautical miles of 9.1S 95.6E
                     998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0400UTC 06 November: within 70 nautical miles of 10.1S 94.1E  
                    990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots .
                     
Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 05 November 2005.

WEATHER PERTH

The JTWC has just re-issued its South Indian Ocean outlook at 0800 UTC to upgrade chances of this becoming a cyclone to good, from "fair" at 0600 UTC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A 042342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

-- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 08:04, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone 02S

Welcome Cyclone 02S!

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E
TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
--- 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//

-- RattleMan 22:44, 5 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

TCWC Perth forecast that 02S will become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hours and exit their AOR in 24 hours.

FORECAST
At 0000UTC 07 November: within 70 nautical miles of 12.9S 89.9E  
                    992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.

It will be a very embarrassing situation as TCWC Perth should name it if it attains tropical cyclone status just before leaving their AOR, but it will be renamed once it enters Mauritius AOR. I think it will be better for TCWC Perth not to name the system and leave the system to Mauritius and Météo France. -- 202.40.137.197

Tropical Cyclone Bertie

93S.INVEST

Looks like a new invest has popped up on the Navy site. -- RattleMan 06:28, 18 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Bertie

And now it's Cyclone Bertie. -- RattleMan 20:37, 19 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST

And now a new invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:02, 29 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

December 2005

Week 1

91P.INVEST - South Pacific

And now...a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:10, 3 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They just changed it from 90P to 91P... -- RattleMan 07:37, 3 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And a South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 5 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone now... -- RattleMan 00:31, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

93S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone. -- RattleMan 05:12, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

And yet another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:28, 8 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This invest is gone, but 93S is still there. -- RattleMan 16:28, 11 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

95S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

...South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 05:13, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

96S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

yawn* ...and another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 22:56, 13 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This one appears to be gone... -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

97P.INVEST - South Pacific

Whee, a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 14 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone...? -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

04S.NONAME

98S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

A Southern Indian Ocean invest. [1]. -- RattleMan 21:55, 16 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

04S.NONAME

Have no fear, TC04S is here. -- RattleMan 08:45, 24 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Finally, this one has been removed from the site. -- RattleMan 16:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

99S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

The main page is down, but the backup says that 99S has formed. [2]. -- RattleMan 03:39, 17 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This one appeared on the main site for a while, but is gone now in both places. 98S still lives, though. -- RattleMan 09:01, 21 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

No, wait! It just reappeared on the Navy site! -- RattleMan 01:42, 22 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This has to be the hardest basin to keep track of - and the most ignored one! CrazyC83 01:19, 24 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed! Anyways, this one is gone now too. -- RattleMan 17:49, 26 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4

90S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

Another Southern Indian Ocean invest. [3]. -- RattleMan 23:35, 25 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Gone... -- RattleMan 00:10, 28 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Week "5"

91S.INVEST & 92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

Two invests for you... -- RattleMan 15:12, 29 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

So hard to keep track here! There just aren't too many meteorological agencies in the South Indian and South Pacific away from Australia... CrazyC83 02:00, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed! Now, 92S is gone. -- RattleMan 16:39, 30 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

91S Is Starting to look good though might develop NONAME 2:10EST 1 December 2006

Well, the South Pacific has been unusually quiet so far in the season. Perhaps it's taking up where the Atlantic left off? bob rulz 08:46, 1 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

January 2006

Week 1

93P.INVEST - South Pacific

Here's some South Pacific activity, Bob! [4] -- RattleMan 18:01, 1 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone... -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST - South Indian

Indian Ocean invest... [5] -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

95S.INVEST - South Indian

Another Indian Ocean invest... [6] -- RattleMan 03:39, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

...well, that was short lived...gone! -- RattleMan 07:54, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

96S.INVEST - South Indian

And...another Indian Ocean invest appeared... [7] -- RattleMan 06:23, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone as 97S replaces it. Is something fishy here? -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Clare

97S.INVEST - South Indian

You've got to be kidding me...97S forms... [8] -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

05S.CLARE

Oh my, another cyclone! 97S developed into TC Clare, I think...according to PERTH... -- RattleMan 21:11, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And the Navy site has updated with the new name. -- RattleMan 02:00, 8 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Get ready everyone, forecast says this will develop into a severe cyclone! Forecast says that it will intesify to a catergory 3 or 4 as it approaches land. This is moving very fast! ---- 211.26.31.114

98P.INVEST - South Pacific

Looks like this season is heating up. 98P forms. [9] -- RattleMan 23:48, 6 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It sure is heating up! None of them are developing though... CrazyC83 15:25, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

04S.NONAME?

I think it's now TD04... [10] -- RattleMan 21:18, 7 January 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Indian Ocean

(This will be crossposted to the Atlantic season talk page, since that's the "parent" article of all of these, and has the most people watching it)

We now have articles for the Atlantic hurricane season; the Pacific hurricane season; the Pacific typhoon season; and the Southern Hemisphere in general. But what about the Indian Ocean? These storms traditionally are the worst killers, and it doesn't fit into any of the above definitions. Perhaps we should have a 2005 Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season article? --Golbez 21:17, September 6, 2005 (UTC)

Yeah, I was feeling kind of lonely over here. :) --Holderca1 00:52, 7 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Southern hemisphere indian ocean should be part of the southern hemisphere article. Northern hemisphere indian ocean is its own basin (though a small one...and it has a fair bit of crossover with the wpac). Jdorje 23:27, 16 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Take a look on what i found at the darwin 3 day outlook page. ----

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 6 January 2006

A weak low, 1005 hPa, is in the TIMOR SEA near the north coast of Bathurst
Island. The low pressure is expected to move towards the west and further into
the Timor sea.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
    
     Saturday: Low,
     Sunday: Moderate,
     Monday: High.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Names

Check out what I did with the Coral Sea section. There's no reason to list all of the unused names from last year because 1) We may not get even close to the end of that list, and 2) We might reach the end and cycle around. I see no reason to mention more than one or two (maybe have two "unused" names at the list at all times, adding more as needed, just to give a buffer time). That's how I originally planned the 2004 typhoon article. --Golbez 21:27, September 7, 2005 (UTC)

I trimmed them down quite a bit, the names section is now about half the size. I don't know about taking it down to one name though, I think I would get tired of looking up the names. I trimmed down the sequential list down to about 18 names each, we can probably go further than that even. --Holderca1 21:47, 7 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I was just concerned that if we had too many, people would think that was the whole list, like the Atlantic/Pacific lists. On the other hand, maybe just one is too few. Maybe a buffer zone of five? Like let's say we were halfway through the season (these names purely hypothetical of course; season started at Charlie):

Charlie
Denise
Edgar
Faith
Greg
Heather (unused)
Irwin (unused)
Joseph (unused)

And that would be the whole list, if we used a buffer of three. Then when another formed, we'd bold Heather, and add Karen (unused) to the end. As I said, my Coral Sea bit was an experiment; I think it's safe to say that, for now, this article is somewhat of a sandbox. :) --Golbez 21:55, September 7, 2005 (UTC)

I can go for that. I agree, I think I am the only one that looks at this page. Not too many may be even aware of its existence. I am sure there are some Aussies that contribute here that would be able help out quite a bit as far as the localized affects of landfalling storms. --Holderca1 22:01, 7 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Aye. When I started the E Pacific season page, it was essentially my project. A few people trickled in, but no one really did much, but we made a 2005 article anyway. Then Adrian happened, and suddenly the EPac was big news, so I was very happy I'd made the article. I had much less success with my 2004 WPac article, and I ended up VfD'ing it. It was too much for one person to handle, and I didn't know what sources of information to use - and it really didn't help that I started work mid-season, so to get archived info I'd have to wade through Unisys's archive of all the tropical cyclone advisories issued every day. But I see a few people have taken on the task for 2005 and are doing a pretty good job of it, much better than I did. So hopefully we can get the same result here, if not this year then perhaps next. We do have the benefit of starting at the start of the season. If a big storm occurs, that will probably bring a lot of needed people to this page, especially Australians. --Golbez 22:11, September 7, 2005 (UTC)

I found several good references in regards to tropical cyclones everywhere really. The first is the Weather Matrix Tropical Summaries, more or less is what I have using for the 2004-05 S. Hemi season page. Also, I just came across these, the Navy's annual tropical cylone reports. Very good info as well. --Holderca1 22:16, 7 September 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Mauritius AOR

there is no Mauritius AOR

If any country/region is resposible for issing certain international bulletin, it will certainly have an area of responsibility. As Maritius is the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center, it definitely has an area of responsibility. The AOR of Mauritius, as defined in the Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-West Indian Ocean, is 55-90E. Momoko 07:54, 6 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Cocos cyclone: RSMC La Reunion warnings?

RSMC La Reunion has released their first warning at 0000UTC, six hours after the final warning from TCWC Perth.

NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 001/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 995 HPA

POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E

MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT


OTHER INFORMATIONS:

SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY CROSSED 90E AND QUIT AUSTRALIAN AREA TO ENTER IN

THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

PROGRESSIVELY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THEN, ITS QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER AREA WITH

COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 60 TO 72 HOURS.

So TD4 is the Australian cyclone? NSLE _(讨论) \^<extra> 11:12, 7 November 2005 (UTC)[reply]

button bar?

should we be on standby for a button bar in case this season intensifies? By the way, i'm australian. ----

JTWC?

Again, why does JTWC take a backseat here. They have 60 years of experience monitoring nothing but tropical cyclones, yet all these lesser RSMCs have taken over. Why? I trust NHC, CPHC, JTWC, JMA, PASAGA, and often the Australians but not always. The New Zelanders are frequently reliable as well. Those are the only forecasters I trust because they have the most experience. The other RSMCs have less experiance and or less equipment to make accurate forecasts. The Indians are really smart, but they don't have the right equipment. They're getting there. The French are ok, they've just made too many obvious mistakes. There was some Category 5 not long ago (I think it was Bento) that they designated a Cat 2 or 3 at peak intensity! They once named a little disturbance a Category 1 hurricane! That's why I'm hesitant to trust them. Nor do I trust Fiji. No offence to them, but Olaf was not a 3, sorry. They have designated all these non-tropical lows, disturbances, and thunderstorm clusters as tropical cyclones that I have lost all trust in them. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:55, 22 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think that the reason that some storms are considered to be of one intensity by the JTWC and a different intensity by some other RSMC is because of the definition of sustained winds. The JTWC, NHC, CPHC, US Territories (and presumably most of N. America) use 1-min average. Most other places use a 10-min average. 10-min averages are somewhat lower than the 1-min averages. Since a storm may need 10-min average sustained winds to reach Category X on one scale, but only 1-min average sustained winds on the SSHS, the 10-min average scale's will always have a lower ranking than a 1-min average scale.. Australia ranks its cyclones by the highest gusts, I believe, which is different from sustained winds. Miss Michelle | Talk to Michelle 22:09, 29 December 2005 (UTC)[reply]