Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election by constituency
Opinion polling for Canadian federal elections |
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2008 |
Opinion polls |
2011 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2015 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2019 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2021 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2015, and have increased in frequency leading up to the October 2019 general election.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Constituency polls
[edit]Alberta
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 16, 2019 | HTML | 32.6 | 40.6 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 0.7 | ±3.93 pp | 623 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 41.2 | 41.0 | 12.7 | 2.2 | 0 | 1.1 | ±0.0 pp | 49,744 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 27.7 | 37.9 | 23.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 | ±4.00 pp | 623 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 20.7 | 31.2 | 43.9 | 2.3 | - | 0.5 | ±0.0 pp | 55,821 | Election |
British Columbia
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 By-election | February 25, 2019 | HTML | 26.02 | 22.63 | 38.90 | 0 | 10.65 | 1.80 | ±0.0 pp | 22,746 | Election |
Mainstreet Research | January 10, 2019 | HTML | 26.3 | 22.0 | 38.8 | 0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | ±3.6 pp | 740 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | November 11, 2018 | HTML | 35.9 | 29.3 | 27.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | ±5.12 pp | 366 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 34 | 27 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 46,162 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 29, 2019 | HTML | 39.7 | 38.0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 0 | ±3.83 pp | 654 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 46 | 29 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 49,302 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 25, 2019 | HTML | 24.4 | 38.5 | 10.1 | 14.6 | 4.5 | 0 | ±3.47 pp | 796 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 30.4 | 35.2 | 30.7 | 3.5 | - | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 69,939 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 29, 2019 | HTML | 25.3 | 16.3 | 37.0 | 15.9 | 2.0 | - | ±3.02 pp | 624 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 28 | 11 | 50 | 9 | - | - | ±0.0 pp | 59,113 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Wilson-Raybould | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 15, 2019 | HTML | 28.3 | 22.3 | - | - | - | 32.8 | - | ±3.94 pp | 620 | IVR[6] |
Mainstreet Research | September 24, 2019 | HTML | 30.2 | 23.3 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 26.9 | - | ±4.03 pp | 592 | IVR[6] |
Justason Marketing | September 5, 2019 | 27 | 15 | 6 | 12 | - | 37 | - | ±5.1 pp | 361 | IVR | |
Mainstreet Research | August 28, 2019 | 40.3 | 18.4 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 3.8 | - | 17.6 | ±4.4 pp | 493 | IVR[5] | |
Mainstreet Research | August 28, 2019 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 28.8 | - | ±4.4 pp | 493 | IVR[6] | |
Mainstreet Research | May 30, 2019 | 29.2 | 19.9 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 0 | 32.3 | 0 | ±4.79 pp | 418 | IVR | |
Justason Marketing | April 5, 2019 | 24 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 7 | ±7 pp | 195 | IVR | |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 44 | 26 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 54,010 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | August 10, 2019 | 27.1 | 17.2 | 22.2 | 28.3 | 3.5 | 0 | ±4.1 pp | 575 | IVR | |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 11.8 | 11.7 | 42.8 | 32.9 | 0 | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 72,136 | Election |
Manitoba
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 24, 2019 | HTML | 26.0 | 41.0 | 20.1 | 8.8 | 1.6 | 0 | ±3.94 pp | 617 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 29.5 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 2.3 | - | - | ±0.0 pp | 43,268 | Election |
Nova Scotia
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 41.0 | 38.3 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 0.7 | - | ±4.46 pp | 598 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 58.5 | 25.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 0 | 1.2 | ±0.0 pp | 44,496 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 26, 2019 | HTML | 39.0 | 35.8 | 4.5 | 15.1 | 1.8 | - | ±3.47 pp | 616 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 63 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 46,510 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 14, 2019 | HTML | 38.9 | 26.7 | 14.3 | 17.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | ±4.46pp | 452 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 48 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 48,451 | Election |
Ontario
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 31.6 | 39.7 | 8.0 | 15.3 | 3.7 | - | ±3.94 pp | 620 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 41.5 | 41.7 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 0 | 0.7 | ±0.0 pp | 50,716 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 22, 2019 | HTML | 34.8 | 49.4 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - | ±4.58 pp | 458 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 37.2 | 41.7 | 18.3 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 52,234 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 35.4 | 43.1 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 4.3 | - | ±3.94 pp | 620 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 35.7 | 45.1 | 16.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 | ±0.0 pp | 64,418 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 30, 2019 | HTML | 44.1 | 21.9 | 6.2 | 23.3 | 3.8 | - | ±3.99 pp | 630 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 49 | 26 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 54,682 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oraclepoll Research | October 8, 2019 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 26 | 2 | - | ±4.4 pp | 500 | IVR | |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 48.8 | 30.4 | 16.6 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.2 | ±0.0 pp | 52,572 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | Philpott | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | May 30, 2019 | 38.9 | 32.2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 20.8 | 0 | ±3.99 pp | 601 | IVR | |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 49 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 59,962 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 30, 2019 | HTML | 39.8 | 38.8 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0 | ±4.08 pp | 588 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 40 | 45 | 10 | 2 | - | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 49,518 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | July 16, 2019 | HTML | 43.7 | 31.3 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ±4.46 pp | 482 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 36 | 30 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 54,682 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | May 30, 2019 | HTML | 48.3 | 35.4 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 0 | ±3.99 pp | 602 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 49 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | ±0.0 pp | 64,704 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 15, 2019 | HTML | 45.6 | 22.7 | 15.7 | 11.3 | 2.7 | - | ±3.71 pp | 699 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 42.6 | 14.4 | 38.5 | 2.9 | 0 | 1.0 | ±0.0 pp | 75,886 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 29, 2019 | HTML | 53.2 | 22.2 | 4.7 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | N/A | 627 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 50.5 | 32.7 | 11.6 | 2.1 | 0 | 3.1 | ±0.0 pp | 45,436 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 36.1 | 39.6 | 5.5 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | ±3.77 pp | 674 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 39.8 | 43.5 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 0 | 1.5 | ±0.0 pp | 57,260 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 49.5 | 23.7 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 2.7 | - | ±4.00 pp | 606 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 49.7 | 32.3 | 14.9 | 2.9 | 0 | 0.2 | ±0.0 pp | 59,849 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 22, 2019 | HTML | 39.7 | 39.1 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 0 | ±3.96 pp | 611 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | July 19, 2019 | HTML | 39.7 | 41 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | ±4.00 pp | 600 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 45.0 | 42.1 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 0 | 0.4 | ±0.0 pp | 64,516 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | August 21, 2019 | HTML | 37.6 | 21.3 | 36.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | - | ±4.53 pp | 468 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 25.2 | 20.8 | 51.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 0.3 | ±0.0 pp | 86,166 | Election |
Prince Edward Island
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 20, 2019 | HTML | 41.3 | 28.7 | 7.4 | 17.0 | 1.2 | 4.3 | ±3.91 pp | 628 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 56.2 | 14.8 | 23.1 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 21,264 | Election |
Quebec
[edit]Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 9, 2019 | HTML | 15 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 29 | - | ±3.9 pp | 625 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | August 5, 2019 | HTML | 19.3 | 33.5 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 33 | 1.8 | ±3.87 pp | 640 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | November 11, 2018 | HTML | 13.8 | 37.9 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 34.7 | 1.8 | ±3.95 pp | 616 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 22 | 59 | 10 | 7 | 2 | N/A | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 56,594 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 30, 2019 | HTML | 30 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 3 | - | ±3.9 pp | 623 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 25.4 | 30.6 | 25.5 | 14.8 | 2.4 | N/A | 1.3 | ±0.0 pp | 51,449 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 12, 2019 | HTML | 31.1 | 20.4 | 4 | 37.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | - | ±3.66 pp | 716 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 24.3 | 11.4 | 22.1 | 40.0 | 2.3 | N/A | - | ±0.0 pp | 53,163 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 29, 2019 | HTML | 25 | 9 | 18 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 2 | ±3.97 | 609 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | September 3, 2019 | HTML | 35 | 15 | 8 | 26 | 9 | - | - | - pp | 825 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 29.3 | 9.3 | 31.1 | 27.7 | 2.3 | N/A | 0.4 | ±0.0 pp | 66,438 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 26, 2019 | HTML | 16.1 | 14.6 | 35.5 | 27.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | - | ±4.00 pp | 600 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 20.2 | 10.2 | 42.1 | 25.8 | 1.5 | - | - | ±0.0 pp | 55,250 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 9, 2019 | HTML | 14.9 | 20.3 | 24.7 | 34.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | - | ±3.89 pp | 634 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | September 14, 2019 | HTML | 27 | 29 | 13 | 19 | 6 | 3 | - | ±3.55 pp | 674 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 28.5 | 16.9 | 29.2 | 23.3 | 1.4 | - | 0.8 | ±0.0 pp | 49,002 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 16, 2019 | HTML | 35 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 3 | 2 | - | ±3.9 pp | 628 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | September 3, 2019 | HTML | 41.0 | 3.7 | 12.8 | 26.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | - | ±3.95 pp | 615 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 23 | 4 | 38 | 28 | 3 | - | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 66,438 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 29, 2019 | HTML | 35.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | - | ±4 pp | 556 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 30.0 | 8.7 | 31.2 | 27.3 | 2.5 | - | 0.3 | ±0.0 pp | 59,138 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 3, 2019 | HTML | 40 | 19 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 4 | - | 3.3 pp | 864 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 34.9 | 27.2 | 20.8 | 14.4 | 2.5 | - | 0.2 | ±0.0 pp | 61,744 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 5, 2019 | HTML | 23.6 | 29.3 | 8 | 28.9 | 6 | 4 | - | ±4 pp | 586 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 28.4 | 29.0 | 24.2 | 16.1 | 1.7 | - | 0.6 | ±0.0 pp | 50,020 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | September 13, 2019 | HTML | 22 | 48 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ±3.5 pp | 625 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 21.5 | 44.0 | 22.1 | 10.7 | 1.8 | - | 0 | ±0.0 pp | 62,059 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 19, 2019 | HTML | 39 | 17 | 8 | 27 | 6 | |||||
Mainstreet Research | July 24, 2019 | HTML | 33.1 | 25.2 | 8.1 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 3 | 1.6 | ±3.7 pp | 684 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 29 | 22 | 27 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | ±0.0 pp | 54,687 | Election |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | October 1, 2019 | HTML | 22 | 6.1 | 35.4 | 26 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | ±3.96 pp | 613 | IVR |
2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 20.7 | 4.3 | 49.2 | 21.1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.7 | ±0.0 pp | 54,349 | Election |
Notes
[edit]Notes
- 1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
- 2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
- 3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
- 4 Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.
- 5 Naming party only.
- 6 Naming candidates.
References
[edit]- ^ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
- ^ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012