2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Kelly: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Masters: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Arizona |
---|
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]
Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[9][10]
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]
U.S Attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former United States Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) [12]
Local officials
- John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–) (Republican)[12]
Organizations
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 589,400 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 589,400 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital[26]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General[27]
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman[28]
- Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard[29]
- Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission[30]
Did not file
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[33]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district[34][35]
- Doug Ducey, outgoing Governor of Arizona[36]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor)[37]
- Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain[38]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[39]
- Kimberly Yee, State Treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)[40][41]
Endorsements
[edit]Individuals
- Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator[42]
- Mark Levin, lawyer and host of Life, Liberty & Levin[43][44][42]
Newspapers
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Jeff DeWit, Chief Financial Officer of NASA (2018–2020) and State Treasurer of Arizona (2015–2018)[46]
- Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[46]
- Mark A. Morgan, Acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2019–2021) and Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol (2016–2017)[46]
- Keith Schiller, Director of Oval Office Operations (2017)[46]
- Matthew Whitaker, Acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019)[46]
- Chad Wolf, Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021)[46]
Statewide officials
- Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona (2009–2015)[46]
State legislators
- Judy Burges, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present) and state senator from the 22nd district (2012–2019)[46]
- Frank Carroll, state representative from the 22nd district (2019–present)[46]
- David Livingston, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019) from the 22nd district[46]
- Kelly Townsend, state senator (2021–present) and state representative (2013–2021) from the 16th district[46]
Individuals
- Brandon Judd, President of the National Border Patrol Council[46]
Organizations
- Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs[46]
- Arizona Police Association (APA) [47]
- Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC)[48]
- Glendale Law Enforcement Association[46]
- Grassroot Grandmas[46]
- National Association of Police Organizations[46]
- National Border Patrol Council[46]
Former[clarification needed]
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[49] (switched endorsement to Blake Masters)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
- David M. McIntosh, Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
- Robert C. O'Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
- Kash Patel, chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present)[54]
U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[55]
- Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
- Matt Gaetz, Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[55]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[57]
Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
- Susie Wiles, political consultant and advisor to Donald Trump[60]
Organizations
Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]
Organizations
- Stand for Health Freedom[65]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[66] | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 17.7% | Masters +15.0 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 16% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 4% | – | 9% |
Emerson College[68] | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 14% | 22% | 40% | 12% | 3% | – | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports[69] | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
OH Predictive Insights[70] | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 36% | 5% | 3% | – | 22% |
Battleground Connect (R)[71] | July 26–27, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 6% | – | 12% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[72] | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 15% | 27% | 35% | 8% | 6% | – | 10% |
Battleground Connect (R)[73] | July 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% |
Cygnal (R)[74] | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 25% |
Battleground Connect (R)[75] | July 7–9, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 29% | 27% | 4% | – | – | 24% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[76] | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 5% | 2% | – | 44% |
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[77] | July 5–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 5% | 0% | – | 45% |
OH Predictive Insights[78] | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 6% | 2% | – | 35% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[79] | June 28, 2022 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 15% | 10% | 29% | 5% | – | – | 41% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[80] | June 7–9, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 4% | 4% | – | 22% |
Data Orbital (R)[81] | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 18% | 20% | 15% | – | – | 12% | 36% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[82][A] | May 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 2% | – | 34% |
Cygnal (R)[83][B] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 19% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | – | 33% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84] | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][C] | April 21–24, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
OH Predictive Insights[86] | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
Data Orbital (R)[87] | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[88] | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[89][A] | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 3% | 1% | – | 52% |
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[90] | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
Data Orbital (R)[87] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
Data Orbital (R)[87] | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1%[c] | 52% |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[95][D] | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1%[c] | 56% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[97] | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Adams |
Andy Biggs |
Mark Brnovich |
Doug Ducey |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[98][E] | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights[99] | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 2%[d] | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
6%[e] | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% | ||||
Data Orbital (R)[100][F] | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Blake Masters | 327,198 | 40.24% | |
Republican | Jim Lamon | 228,467 | 28.10% | |
Republican | Mark Brnovich | 144,092 | 17.72% | |
Republican | Michael McGuire | 71,100 | 8.75% | |
Republican | Justin Olson | 41,985 | 5.16% | |
Write-in | 226 | 0.03% | ||
Total votes | 813,068 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[101] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)[2]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Marc Victor | 3,065 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 3,065 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.[105]
With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[107]
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[108] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
Inside Elections[109] | Tilt D | October 21, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] | Lean D | October 19, 2022 |
Politico[111] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
RCP[112] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
Fox News[113] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
DDHQ[114] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight[115] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
The Economist[116] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Debates
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee
W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | Marc Victor | |||||
1 | October 6, 2022 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | [117] | P | P | P |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[118]
- Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
- Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]
U.S. Senators
- Alex Padilla, U.S. Senator from California (2021–present)[119]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present)[120]
U.S. Representatives
- Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2013–present)[121]
U.S. Attorneys
- Paul K. Charlton, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican)[12]
State legislators
- Kirsten Engel, former state senator (2021) from the 10th district[121]
- Pete Hershberger, former state representative (2001–2008) from the 26th district (Republican)[122]
- Roberta Voss, former state representative (1997–2003) from the 19th district (Republican)[122]
Local officials
- Cathy Carlat, mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican)[12]
- Jack Dillenberg, mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican)[12]
- John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[12]
- Donald Huish, mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
- Paul Johnson, former mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent)[122]
- Craig McFarland, mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
- David Ortega, mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent)[12]
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present)[121]
- Chip Wilson, Mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican)[12]
Individuals
- Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States[123]
- Camila Cabello, singer[124]
- Kerry Washington, actress[124]
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America[125]
- International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[125]
- National Association of Social Workers[125]
- National Education Association[126]
- United Auto Workers[125]
- United Mine Workers of America[127]
Organizations
- 314 Action[13]
- BOLD Democrats[125]
- Brady Campaign[125]
- Common Defense PAC[125]
- End Citizens United[14]
- Equality Arizona[128]
- Feminist Majority PAC[15]
- Forward Party[129]
- Human Rights Campaign[130]
- J Street PAC[125]
- Jewish Dems[17]
- League of Conservation Voters[131]
- March On[18]
- MoveOn[125]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[125]
- National Organization for Women[125]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[125]
- Our Voice, Our Vote PAC[125]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
- Population Connection Action Fund[21]
- Progressive Turnout Project[125]
- Renew America Movement[22]
- Serve America PAC[125]
- Sierra Club[132]
- Stonewall Democrats[125]
- Voter Protection Project[125]
- VoteVets.org[23]
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Duke Buchan, U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (2018–2021)[133]
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
- David M. McIntosh, former Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
- Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
- Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021) and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017)[134]
- Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)[133]
- Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019)[133]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
- Chad Wolf, Acting United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans (2019–2021) and Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (2019)[133]
U.S. Senators
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[135]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[136]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present) and former Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019)[54]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[137]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019)[138]
U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[55]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[139]
- Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) and former Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016)[140] (Independent)
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[55]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)[141]
- Debbie Lesko, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2018–present)[139]
- Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (R-TX) (1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-2013), candidate for President in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[142][143][144]
- David Schweikert, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2011-2013)[139]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[57]
Governors
- Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015) and former secretary of state of Arizona (2003–2009)[145]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[146]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) and former Arizona State Treasurer (2011–2015)[145]
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona (1991–1997)[145]
Local officials
- Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–present)[147]
Party officials
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present)[148]
Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
- Nick Fuentes, far-right livestreamer and white supremacist[149]
- Sean Hannity, host of Hannity and The Sean Hannity Show and conservative political commentator[150]
- Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[151]
- Jack Posobiec, political activist[149]
- Dave Smith, comedian, podcaster, and co-host of Legion of Skanks[152] (Libertarian)
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
- Marc Victor, former Libertarian nominee for Arizona's other Senate seat in 2012[4] (Libertarian)
Labor unions
Organizations
- Arizona Republican Party[148]
- Campaign for Working Families[154]
- Center for Arizona Policy[155]
- Club for Growth[51]
- The Conservative Caucus[156]
- FreedomWorks for America[157]
- National Federation of Independent Business[158]
- National Right to Life Committee[159]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[160]
- Political Victory Fund[161]
- Republicans for National Renewal[61]
- Tea Party Express[62]
- Turning Point Action[162]
Rejected by candidate
- Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics[163] | October 30 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 3.7% | Masters +0.3 |
FiveThirtyEight[164] | September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.6% | 47.1% | 4.3% | Kelly +1.5 |
270ToWin[165] | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.9% | 46.6% | 5.5% | Kelly +1.3 |
Average | 48.3% | 47.2% | 4.5% | Kelly +1.1 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Marc Victor (L) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[166] | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 1% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R)[167] | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1%[g] | 3% | ||||||||
Research Co.[168] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D)[169] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
Targoz Market Research[170] | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
KAConsulting (R)[171][G] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 2% | ||||||||
HighGround Inc.[173] | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 2%[h] | 6% | ||||||||
Remington Research Group (R)[174] | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Marist College[175] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 1%[i] | 8% | ||||||||
1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | – | 1%[j] | 2% | ||||||||||
Big Data Poll (R)[176] | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Patriot Polling (R)[177] | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 814 (RV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Civiqs[178] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | – | 2%[k] | 1% | ||||||||
Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College[179] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 1%[l] | 1% | ||||||||
48% | 48% | 3% | 1%[m] | – | ||||||||||||
The Phillips Academy[180] | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fox News[181] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 4%[n] | 5% | ||||||||
Wick Insights (R)[182] | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | – | 3%[o] | 1% | ||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[183][E] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | – | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights[184] | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Siena College/NYT[185] | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||||||
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[186][H] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 40% | – | 5%[p] | 11% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 6% | – | 6% | ||||||||
co/efficient (R)[187] | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[188][I] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | <1%[q] | 6% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[189][J] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D)[190] | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Wick Insights (R)[191] | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 2%[r] | 3% | ||||||||
HighGround Inc.[192][K] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 40% | 5% | 3%[s] | 10% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[193] | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | 5% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D)[194][L] | October 9–10, 2022 | 894 (RV) | – | 54% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
551 (LV) | 55% | 38% | – | – | 7% | |||||||||||
Ascend Action (R)[195] | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 44% | – | 5%[t] | 2% | ||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | October 8–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 7% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights[197] | October 4–6, 2022 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 33% | 15% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Big Data Poll (R)[198] | October 2–5, 2022 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
YouGov/CBS News[199] | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 48% | – | – | 1% | ||||||||
CNN/SSRS[200] | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 7%[u] | – | ||||||||
795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4%[v] | – | ||||||||||
Fox News[201] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 6%[w] | 9% | ||||||||
Suffolk University[202] | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Marist College[203] | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% | ||||||||
1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||||
Data for Progress (D)[204] | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[205] | September 14–17, 2022 | 1080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[206] | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
52% | 45% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | September 6–11, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 6% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D)[207][L] | September 9–10, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
563 (LV) | 55% | 35% | – | – | 9% | |||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights[208] | September 6–9, 2022 | 654 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 35% | 6% | – | 12% | ||||||||
Emerson College[209] | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 3%[x] | 5% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[210] | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 39% | 4% | – | 12% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[211] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
RMG Research[213] | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Fox News[214] | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D)[215][L] | August 4–8, 2022 | 1,107 (A) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 34% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
877 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 34% | – | – | 16% | ||||||||||
512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][N] | August 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 34% | – | 1% | 13% | ||||||||
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% | ||||||||||
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% | ||||||||
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 32% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 35% | – | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Mark Brnovich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% | ||
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 18% |
Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 14% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 9% | ||
Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Michael McGuire (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jack McCain (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kimberly Yee (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 35% | 19% |
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights[223] | May 9–16, 2022 | 938 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[224] | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 12% |
OH Predictive Insights[225] | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
Change Research (D)[219][P] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 1,322,027 | 51.39% | +0.23% | |
Republican | Blake Masters | 1,196,308 | 46.51% | −2.30% | |
Libertarian | Marc Victor (withdrawn) | 53,762 | 2.09% | N/A | |
Write-in | 197 | 0.01% | –0.02% | ||
Total votes | 2,572,294 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
By county
[edit]By county
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
By congressional district
[edit]Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]
District | Kelly | Masters | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 46% | David Schweikert |
2nd | 47% | 51% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress) |
Eli Crane (118th Congress) | |||
3rd | 76% | 21% | Ruben Gallego |
4th | 57% | 41% | Greg Stanton |
5th | 44% | 54% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 54% | 44% | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress) |
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress) | |||
7th | 68% | 30% | Raúl Grijalva |
8th | 46% | 52% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |
See also
[edit]- 2022 United States Senate elections
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
- 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
- 2022 Arizona elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b Paveza with <1%
- ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
- ^ Response with candidates' job titles
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
- ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
- ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
- ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
- ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
- ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
- ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
- ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
- ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund
References
[edit]- ^ "GOP megadonor Peter Thiel to host fundraiser for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters". CNBC. September 20, 2022.
- ^ a b Goldmacher, Shane (November 1, 2022). "Libertarian Candidate Drops Out of Arizona Senate Race and Endorses Masters". The New York Times.
- ^ "Arizona's Libertarian Senate Candidate Quits and Endorses Masters". Bloomberg.com. November 2022.
- ^ a b "Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor drops out of race". ABC 15 Arizona. November 1, 2022.
- ^ Ulloa, Jazmine (November 12, 2022). "Mark Kelly Wins Arizona Senate Race, Putting Democrats a Seat From Control". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
- ^ Ulloa, Jazmine (November 12, 2022). "Mark Kelly Wins Arizona Senate Race, Putting Democrats a Seat From Control". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
- ^ "Democrats keep control of the Senate with win in Nevada". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
- ^ "Blake Masters concedes Sen. Mark Kelly's victory, ending a crucial Arizona Senate race". AZ Central. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
- ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020.
- ^ "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021.
He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
- ^ a b c d "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Kavaler, Tara (July 15, 2022). "'Republicans for Kelly' group announces support for Sen. Mark Kelly". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 29, 2022.
- ^ a b "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
- ^ a b Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
- ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
- ^ "Forward Party Senate Endorsements". Forward Party. Retrieved March 9, 2023.
- ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". Jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021.
- ^ "Endorsements". Prochoiceamerica.org. NARAL Pro-Choice America. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
- ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
- ^ a b "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". Votevets.org.
- ^ a b c "2022 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
- ^ a b c Arizona Secretary of State (August 22, 2022). "State of Arizona Official Canvass – August 2, 2022, Primary Election" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 9, 2022. Retrieved August 26, 2022.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". Fox Business. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- ^ "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
- ^ Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the first Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
- ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
- ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
- ^ "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
- ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
- ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
- ^ "News". BiggsForCongress.com.
- ^ Sanchez, Yvonne (March 3, 2022). "'I have the job I want': Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2022". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
- ^ Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
- ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
- ^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.
- ^ Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
- ^ "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
- ^ a b Hillyer, Quin (July 7, 2022). "Trump endorses strange Arizona man over MAGA star". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "Mark Levin on AG Brnovich: "This is why I've endorsed you for the U.S. Senate"". YouTube. May 11, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
- ^ "Mark Levin endorsed Arizona Mark Brnovich". brnoforaz. September 9, 2021. Archived from the original on July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "Editorial: Primary election". Casa Grande Dispatch. July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q "Lamon Endorsements". September 16, 2021. Archived from the original on July 3, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
- ^ "Arizona Police Association Endorses Jim Lamon - Jim Lamon for U.S. Senate AZ". September 18, 2021.[permanent dead link ]
- ^ "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". Conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- ^ Sivak, David. "Jim Lamon loses Trump ally Richard Grenell's endorsement in Arizona Senate primary". Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
- ^ a b c d "tennesseestar.com". July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
- ^ a b Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- ^ a b Greenwood, Max (June 2, 2022). "Trump Endorses Masters in Arizona Senate GOP Primary". The Hill. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
- ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (April 25, 2022). "Hawley endorses Thiel-backed Arizona Senate candidate". POLITICO. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
- ^ a b "Congressman Madison Cawthorn Endorses Arizona GOP Senate Candidate Blake Masters". January 31, 2022.
- ^ a b "Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". May 6, 2022.
- ^ a b Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "Politico Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
- ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
- ^ Palmeri, Tara (January 21, 2022). "POLITICO Playbook: Suspicious Trump weighs dual endorsements". POLITICO. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- ^ a b "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". December 20, 2021.
- ^ a b "ELECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Blake Masters for Senate in Arizona". Tea Party Express. August 1, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- ^ a b "Neo-Nazi publisher Andrew Anglin gives 'forceful endorsement' of Blake Masters' Senate bid". July 1, 2022.
- ^ a b "Trump-backed Senate candidate Blake Masters rejects endorsement of neo-Nazi site founder". July 1, 2022.
- ^ "Justin Olson for Arizona US Senate | Stand for Health Freedom". March 25, 2022.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Battleground Connect (R)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Battleground Connect (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Battleground Connect (R)
- ^ HighGround Public Affairs (R)
- ^ Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Data Orbital (R)
- ^ Fabrizio Lee (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ a b c Data Orbital (R)
- ^ HighGround Public Affairs (R)
- ^ Fabrizio Lee (R)
- ^ Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners
- ^ a b co/efficient (R)
- ^ a b c OH Predictive Insights
- ^ a b OH Predictive Insights
- ^ a b Fabrizio Lee (R)
- ^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
- ^ a b c d e OH Predictive Insights
- ^ HighGround Public Affairs (R)
- ^ WPA Intelligence (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Data Orbital (R)
- ^ "2022 Primary Election Interested Candidates". apps.arizona.vote. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Primary Election Results". Arizona Secretary of State.
- ^ "Kelly continues to raise money 'like a maniac,' dwarfing Masters in Senate race". bizjournals.com. October 18, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
- ^ "Column: In Arizona, fears that yet another flawed candidate may cost GOP control of Senate". Los Angeles Times. September 2022.
- ^ Goldmacher, Shane (November 12, 2022). "How the 2022 Midterms Became a Squeaker". The New York Times.
- ^ "Fox News Power Rankings: Storm clouds gather for Democrats in the Northeast". Fox News. October 25, 2022.
- ^ Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "Senate Election Forecast 2022". Politico. October 19, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RealClearPolitics. October 25, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. October 16, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
- ^ Youtube
- ^ "Former President Barack Obama set to hold rally for Sen. Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs in Phoenix".
- ^ "California Sen. Alex Padilla is campaigning hard — just not for himself". Los Angeles Times. October 27, 2022.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (October 5, 2022). "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Mark Kelly holds campaign rally in Tucson". November 4, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Multiple GOP mayors, business owners backing Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly". July 17, 2022.
- ^ "The Arizona Republic".
- ^ a b "Celebrities campaign for Democratic candidates Kelly and Hobbs in Arizona".
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q "Mark Kelly's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
- ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
- ^ "Arizona - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Equality Arizona Endorsements". Equality Arizona.
- ^ "2022 Endorsements". Forward Party. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
- ^ Luneau, Delphine (April 28, 2022). "Human Rights Campaign Proudly Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. Human Rights Campaign.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Kelly for Senate". August 22, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
- ^ a b c d "Prominent pro-Trump couple to fundraise for Senate candidates List". The Washington Post. September 19, 2022. Retrieved September 22, 2022.
- ^ Samuels, Brett (October 11, 2022). "Pence backs Masters in Arizona Senate race at Phoenix event". The Hill. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
- ^ "First Lady Jill Biden among top names in Arizona helping candidates campaign". November 6, 2022.
- ^ "Ted Cruz Rallies Kari Lake". The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- ^ "Endorsements". Retrieved October 27, 2022.
- ^ "Florida Sen. Rick Scott rallies for Republican Senate hopeful Blake Masters".
- ^ a b c @MastersPress (September 12, 2022). "UNITY: Arizona Republican Congressional Delegation endorses @bgmasters for U.S. Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved September 13, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Tulsi Gabbard to campaign for Kari Lake, Blake Masters in Arizona". October 18, 2022.
- ^ @DrPaulGosar (August 31, 2022). "We need a solid leader like @bgmasters in the Senate if we are to save this country. He has my full support" (Tweet). Retrieved September 3, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Does Blake Masters Have the 'Right Stuff' for Senate? With Guest...Blake Masters!".
- ^ "Does Blake Masters Have the 'Right Stuff' for Senate? With Guest...Blake Masters!". October 24, 2022.
- ^ "Will the Midterms Change Anything?".
- ^ a b c Roberts, Laurie. "Three governors' endorsements for Masters don't mean nearly as much as one judge's ruling". The Arizona Republic.
- ^ "DeSantis to hit campaign trail to rally support for Trump-endorsed candidates: 'Unite and win'". Fox News. August 7, 2022.
- ^ Cowling, Mark (September 26, 2022). "Masters travels to Pinal to receive Lamb's endorsement". Pinal Central. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ a b Sievers, Caitlin (September 13, 2022). "AZ Republicans plead with Mitch McConnell to spend millions of dollars to help Blake Masters". AZMIRROR. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ a b Ecarma, Caleb (August 16, 2022). "WHITE EXTREMISTS HAVE FOUND THEIR GUY FOR THE SENATE: BLAKE MASTERS". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ "The Sean Hannity Show: Meet Blake Masters - September 13th, Hour 2 on Apple Podcasts". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
- ^ "Chuck Norris Endorses Blake Masters". Twitter. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
- ^ Tuccille, J. D. (October 14, 2022). "In Arizona, Libertarian Party Senate Candidate Polls at 15 Percent". Reason.com. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
- ^ "LAW ENFORCEMENT BACKS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES". Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
- ^ "CAP Action's Endorsements for the 2022 General Election!" (PDF). Center for Arizona Policy Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
- ^ "Why You and Other Arizonans should vote for Blake Masters". The Conservative Caucus. Archived from the original on September 27, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
- ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona U.S. Senate Race". August 3, 2022. Archived from the original on August 8, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
- ^ "Arizona's Small Businesses Endorse Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". September 22, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate Race". August 9, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
- ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Arizona". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Defend Freedom. Defeat Mark Kelly". NRA-PVF.
- ^ "ENDORSEMENTS". Turning Point Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
- ^ RealClearPolitics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ 270ToWin
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Data Orbital (R)
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ Targoz Market Research
- ^ KAConsulting (R)
- ^ a b InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ HighGround Inc.
- ^ Remington Research Group (R)
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Big Data Poll (R)
- ^ Patriot Polling (R)
- ^ Civiqs
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ The Phillips Academy
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Wick Insights (R)
- ^ Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Siena College/NYT
- ^ BSP Research/Shaw & Co.
- ^ co/efficient (R)
- ^ Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ Wick Insights (R)
- ^ HighGround Inc.
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ Kurt Jetta (D)
- ^ Ascend Action (R)
- ^ a b OnMessage Inc. (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Big Data Poll (R)
- ^ YouGov/CBS News
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
- ^ Kurt Jetta (D)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Kurt Jetta (D)
- ^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
- ^ a b c Beacon Research (D)
- ^ a b c Fabrizio Lee (R)
- ^ a b c Change Research (D)
- ^ a b c Blueprint Polling (D)
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)
- ^ a b c d e f g OH Predictive Insights
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ HighGround Public Affairs (R)
- ^ OH Predictive Insights
- ^ "2022 General Election Statewide Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 16, 2023. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites