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1991 New Brunswick general election

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1991 New Brunswick general election
← 1987 September 23, 1991 1995 →
58 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
30 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
CoR
Leader Frank McKenna Arch Pafford
Party Liberal Confederation of Regions
Leader since 1985 1989
Leader's seat Chatham Ran in Miramichi-Newcastle (lost)
Last election 58 seats, 60.39% New party
Seats won 46 8
Seat change Decrease 12 Increase 8
Popular vote 193,890 87,256
Percentage 47.11% 21.18%
Swing Decrease 13.28pp New party
  Third party Fourth party
 
PC
NDP
Leader Dennis Cochrane Elizabeth Weir
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since 1990 1988
Leader's seat Petitcodiac Saint John South
Last election 0 seats, 28.59% 0 seats, 10.55%
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Increase 3 Increase 1
Popular vote 85,210 44,384
Percentage 20.69% 10.78%
Swing Decrease 7.89pp Increase 0.23pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election

Frank McKenna
Liberal

Premier after election

Frank McKenna
Liberal

Rendition of party representation in the 52nd New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
  Liberals (46)
  Confederation of Regions (8)
  Progressive Conservatives (3)
  New Democrats (1)

The 1991 New Brunswick general election was held on September 23, 1991, to elect 58 members to the 52nd New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

As expected, the Liberal Party won a large majority. Many were surprised that the Confederation of Regions Party formed the official opposition.[1] Though they ran even with the PCs in popular vote, their concentration of support in rural anglophone ridings gave them considerably more seats. Weir's personal popularity and name recognition was not enough to give her party more seats as she, and the Tories, had votes relatively evenly spread around the province.

Background

[edit]

Though Frank McKenna's Liberals were expected to win a second term after sweeping all 58 seats in 1987, any of the other three parties were considered contenders for official opposition.

The New Democratic Party was led by Elizabeth Weir, who had been the strongest and most consistent voice of opposition to the Liberals since her election as party leader in 1988. In the ensuing three years, thanks to the lack of opposition members in the legislature (MLAs), her firebrand style had made her a well-known name in New Brunswick politics.

The fledgling Confederation of Regions Party had been created out of the ashes of the Hatfield Tories when the latter went from majority government to zero seats in 1987. CoR was running numerous former Tory MLAs and candidates, and even some former Tory cabinet ministers. Its base of support was in English-speaking regions of New Brunswick, where many conservatives had become alienated by Hatfield's close relationship with Acadians.

The Progressive Conservatives had been in power for the majority of years since confederation, and 17 straight years before 1987. Even so, the scandals of the final Hatfield years and the growing unpopularity of the federal Progressive Conservatives hindered their success. Additionally they had perceived internal problems having gone through four leaders since the last election: Hatfield, then two-year interim leader Malcolm MacLeod then Barbara Baird, and then Dennis Cochrane.

Opinion polls

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Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm Last day
of survey 		Source NBLA CoR NBPC NBNDP Other ME Sample
Election 1991 September 23, 1991 47.11 21.18 20.69 10.78 0.24
Baseline Research August 1991 [2] 51 15 19 13 — 4 350
Baseline Research August 1991 [3] 51 15 22 10 — 4 350
Baseline Research July 1991 [4] 53[5] — 18 — — — 350
Omnifacts June 1991 [6] 37 — 8 17 — — —
Baseline Research January 1991 [7] 58 15 8 19 — — 350
Baseline Research March 1990 [8] 58 12 17 13 — — —
Baseline Research January 1990[9] [10] 58 12 17 13 — — 358[9]
Baseline Research June 1989 [11] 63 9 17 — — 6 —
New Brunswick Confederation of Regions Party founded (1989)
Election 1987 October 13, 1987 60.39 - 28.59 10.55 0.47

Close results

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A number of races were close 2 or 3 way contests with only a small fraction of votes separating the winner from the losers. The tables below highlight the seats that the three major parties missed by less than 10 percentage points (pp) and the margins between them and the winner.

Liberal Confederation of Regions Progressive Conservative
  1. Riverview (-0.27pp from CoR)
  2. Kings East (-0.33pp from PC)
  3. Shippegan-les-îles (-0.51pp from PC)
  4. Petitcodiac (-1.16pp from PC)
  5. Saint John South (-1.82pp from NDP)
  6. Southwest Miramichi (-2.35pp from CoR)
  7. Oromocto (-2.94pp from CoR)
  8. York South (-6.68pp from CoR)
  1. Queens North (-0.20pp from Lib)
  2. Petitcodiac (-0.60pp from PC)
  3. Kings Centre (-1.37pp from Lib)
  4. Saint John East (-1.56pp from Lib)
  5. Saint John Fundy (-4.91pp from Lib)
  6. Miramichi-Newcastle (-7.52pp from Lib)
  7. Carleton South (-7.55pp from Lib)
  8. Kings East (-9.17pp from PC)
  9. Queens South (-9.19pp from Lib)
  1. Carleton North (-2.55pp from Lib)
  2. Saint John Fundy (-2.56pp from Lib)
  3. Miramichi-Newcastle (-3.50pp from Lib)
  4. Kings Centre (-6.81pp from Lib)

Results

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Results by party

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Summary of the 1991 Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick election results
Party Party leader # of
candidates 		Seats Popular vote
1987 Dissolution Elected % Change # % Change
Liberal Frank McKenna 58 58 58 46 -20.7% 193,890 47.11% -13.28%
Confederation of Regions Arch Pafford 48 - 0 8 - 87,256 21.18% -
Progressive Conservative Dennis Cochrane 58 0 0 3 - 85,210 20.69% -7.89%
New Democratic Elizabeth Weir 58 0 0 1 - 44,384 10.78% +0.23%
Independent 2 - - -   850 0.21% -0.26%
Total 224 58 58 58 - 411,590 100%
Source: http://www.gnb.ca/elections
Popular vote
Liberal
 
 47.11%
Conf. of Regions
 
 21.18%
PC
 
 20.69%
New Democratic
 
 10.78%
Others
 
 0.24%
Seats summary
Liberal
 
 79.31%
Conf. of Regions
 
 13.79%
PC
 
 5.17%
New Democratic
 
 1.72%

Results by region

[edit]
Party Name North Central South West South East Total
  Liberal Seats: 15 8 14 9 46
  Popular Vote: 57.0 40.1 39.8 51.4 47.1
  Confederation of Regions Seats: 0 6 0 2 8
  Popular Vote: 5.8 35.4 25.6 17.8 21.2
  Progressive Conservative Seats: 1 0 1 1 3
  Popular Vote: 23.6 19.2 21.3 18.6 20.7
  New Democratic Seats: 0 0 1 0 1
  Popular Vote: 13.0 5.2 13.3 12.1 10.8
Total seats: 16 14 16 12 58

Results by riding

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Legend

  • bold denotes party leader
  • † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election

North

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Consisting of Victoria, Madawaska, Restigouche and Gloucester county ridings.


Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal CoR PC NDP Other
Victoria-Tobique Larry R. Kennedy 2,854 Carl Skaarup 1,580 Neville J. Crabbe 1,664 Cheryl Ann Elizabeth Pelkey 308 Larry Kennedy
Grand Falls Paul Duffie 3,617 Roy Simon Dee 197 Léo R. Thériault 1,209 Clyde Winchester 207 Paul Duffie
Madawaska-les-Lacs Georges Corriveau 2,906 Raout Cyr 2,211 Gérard Caron 601 Georges Corriveau
Madawaska Centre Gérald Clavette 2,942 Don Marmen 1,706 Jean-Marie St-Onge 412 Gérald Clavette
Edmundston Roland Beaulieu 3,686 Patrick Dalpé 1,156 Réal Couturier 719 Roland Beaulieu
Madawaska South Pierrette Ringuette 2,843 Théo Poitras 1,715 Julien Tardif 209 Pierrette Ringuette
Restigouche West Jean Paul Savoie 3,922 Robert A. Boudreau 517 Félix J. Dubé 2,524 Rino Pelletier 302 Jean Paul Savoie
Campbellton Edmond Blanchard 3,599 Ronald Rioux 1,062 Bill Ferguson 934 Douglas Gordon Kingston 593 Edmond Blanchard
Dalhousie Allan Maher 2,804 Isabelle Ann Culverwell Davis 451 Scott Chedore 608 Aurele Ferlotte 1,927 Allan Maher
Restigouche East Rayburn Doucett 3,023 Norman Shea 381 Richard Lapointe 294 Walter Gauthier, Jr. 1,241 Rayburn Doucett
Nigadoo-Chaleur Albert Doucet 4,732 David Boudreau 466 Raoul Charest 1,696 Ulric DeGrace (Ind.) 714 Albert Doucet
Nepisiguit-Chaleur Frank Branch 3,752 Laurie Alan Daley 760 Robert Hornibrook 616 Karen Ann McCrea 1,172 Frank Branch
Bathurst Marcelle Mersereau 4,047 Laurie Joseph Robichaud 1,280 Claire Wilt 1,025 Colette Buttimer 832 Paul Kenny†
Caraquet Bernard Thériault 5,298 Gilbert Godin 2,279 Roger Duguay 2,167 Bernard Thériault
Shippagan-les-Îles Aldéa Landry 4,831 Jean Gauvin 4,881 John Gagnon 128 Aldéa Landry
Tracadie Denis Losier 6,374 Colette McGraw 2,103 Pierre Cousineau 1,427 Denis Losier

Central

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Consisting of Carleton, York, Sunbury and Northumberland county ridings.


Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal CoR PC NDP Other
Carleton North Fred Harvey 2,163 Jack Salmon 857 Dale Graham 2,032 Anna Marie Kilfoil 84 Fred Harvey
Carleton Centre Allison DeLong 2,087 Lois M. Clark 1,281 Mary Hatfield 1,387 Linda Marie Lawrence 104 Allison DeLong
Carleton South Bruce Smith 2,462 Jerry Covey 2,036 Bill Hamilton 890 Arthur L. Slipp 254 Bruce Smith
York North Bob Simpson 3,825 Gregory James Hargrove 5,463 Mark A. Moir 1,174 Chris Orenstein 450 Bob Simpson
York South Al Lacey 4,754 Danny Cameron 5,607 Marven Grant 1,797 Rita Hurley 602 Al Lacey
Fredericton South Russ King 4,584 Meryl Sarty 3,295 Jamie Henderson 2,575 Pauline MacKenzie 1,463 Henry John Marshall (Ind.) 136 Russ King
Fredericton North Jim Wilson 3,864 Ed Allen 6,052 Donald H. Parent 1,810 Richard Stephen DeSaulniers 553 Jim Wilson
Sunbury Shawn Perry 2,616 Max White 3,935 Keith Ashfield 799 Barbara Ann Fairley 306 Doug Harrison†
Oromocto Tom Gilbert 2,036 Albert Rector 2,197 Joe Mombourquette 939 Alton Shears 297 Tom Gilbert
Southwest Miramichi Claude Stewart 2,798 Brent Taylor 2,954 Donald Long 701 Larry Lynch 193 Morris Green†
Miramichi-Newcastle John McKay 2,583 Arch Pafford 2,252 Paul Dawson 2,573 Liane Tiboudeau-Doucet 315 John McKay
Chatham Frank McKenna 3,147 Jim West 1,563 Richard Hilchey 598 Wera Baldwin 383 Frank McKenna
Bay du Vin Reg MacDonald 2,834 John J. Keating 604 Muriel Lamkey 1,608 Jeanne Thériault 220 Reg MacDonald
Miramichi Bay Danny Gay 3,940 James Grant MacIntosh 638 Emilien LeBreton 2,117 Norman A. Richardson 493 Danny Gay

South West

[edit]

Consisting of Queens, Kings, Saint John and Charlotte county ridings.


Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal CoR PC NDP Other
Queens North Doug Tyler 1,740 Constance Melissa Webber 1,654 Clayton Chase 256 Susan Barton 94 Doug Tyler
Queens South Vaughn Blaney 1,543 Jarvis M. Ducey 1,205 Larry C. Black 676 Gordon Black 255 Vaughn Blaney
Kings West Laureen Jarrett 6,219 Glendon F. Jones 3,810 Nancy E. Grant 3,267 Roger M. Olmstead 1,494 Laureen Jarrett
Kings Centre Georgie Day 3,011 Colby Fraser 2,882 Charles Edward Murray 2,371 Marian Jefferies 1,133 Kal Seaman†
Kings East Tim Wilson 2,843 Mel Stockford 2,098 Hazen Myers 2,871 Anne-Marie Dupuis 617 Pete Dalton†
Saint John Fundy Stuart Jamieson 2,213 Gary William Vincent 1,868 Bev Harrison 2,033 Kathleen Fudge 907 Stuart Jamieson
East Saint John George J. Jenkins 2,785 Gary Ewart 2,650 Don Elliott 1,360 Ben Donaldson 1,868 Peter Trites†
Saint John Harbour Louis Murphy 1,779 Marie Gerrior 844 Nargis Kheraj 496 Al Maund 968 Louis Murphy
Saint John South John Mooney 1,596 Ray McDevitt 549 Paddy Addison 514 Elizabeth Weir 1,675 John Mooney
Saint John Park Shirley Dysart 1,743 Richard Condon Sullivan Kinsella 825 Shirley McAlary 733 Judith Meinert 777 Shirley Dysart
Saint John North Leo McAdam 1,892 Peter A. Whitebone 950 Doug Shippee 1,089 Julie Galbraith 966 Leo McAdam
Saint John West Jane Barry 3,527 Jim Webb 2,471 Gerry Maher 1,559 Robert W. Hickes 1,382 Jane Barry
Charlotte-Fundy Eric Allaby 1,950 Keith B. Guptilt 957 Sharon Tucker 757 Dorothy Matthews 183 Eric Allaby
Charlotte Centre Sheldon Lee 2,195 Connie M. Stewart 516 Stanley John Smith 471 Jean Stewart 162 Sheldon Lee
Charlotte West Reid Hurley 1,796 Mabel Groom 768 Bev Lawrence 1,077 Ellen Smith 281 Reid Hurley
St. Stephen-Milltown Ann Breault 1,820 Robert Michael Booth 798 Ken Stevens 1,129 Irene Tobin 114 Ann Breault

South East

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Consisting of Kent, Westmorland and Albert county ridings.


Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal CoR PC NDP Other
Kent North Conrad Landry 3,377 Dominique Babineau 939 Docile Doiron 1,011 Conrad Landry
Kent Centre Alan Graham 3,025 Percy Beers 626 David MacDonald 347 Neil Gardner 379 Alan Graham
Kent South Camille Thériault 5,573 Jean-Claude Cormier 2,023 Gérald Mazerolle 1,256 Camille Thériault
Shediac Bernard Richard 7,298 Lester Russell Hyslop 481 Emile Goguen Dupré 1,240 Patrick Allain 830 Azor LeBlanc†
Tantramar Marilyn Trenholme 3,008 Clarke Edgar Sheppard 1,091 William R. Campbell 556 Robert Hall 1,419 Marilyn Trenholme
Memramcook Greg O'Donnell 6,393 Julia Elnora LeBlanc 407 Jean-Robert Gaudet 680 Martin Aubin 1,797 Greg O'Donnell
Moncton East J. Raymond Frenette 4,041 William André Joseph LeSage 1,120 John Hansen 1,026 Mary Elizabeth McLaughlin 1,416 Ray Frenette
Moncton North Mike McKee 4,797 Tom Taylor 1,780 John MacFarlane 1,262 J.C. Bourque 973 Mike McKee
Moncton West Jim Lockyer 3,558 Arthur M. Hayden 1,691 Ben D. Stymiest 1,483 Stephanie Day Domingue 726 Jim Lockyer
Petitcodiac Hollis S. Steeves 4,698 Leona May Geldart 4,786 Dennis Cochrane 4,879 Richard Hay 1,204 Hollis Steeves
Riverview Hubert Seamans 3,115 Gordon B. Willden 3,139 Ross MacCallum 2,084 Wayne Brown 594 Hubert Seamans
Albert Lee Martin 1,432 Beverly M. Brine 2,328 Wayne Steeves 1,641 Elizabeth Venart 277 Harold Terris†

References

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  1. ^ Cox, K. (1991, Sep 24). Liberals take N.B. as CoR surprises new party wins official opposition. The Globe and Mail
  2. ^ Spears, John (September 20, 1991). "N.B. Liberals heading for massive win, new poll says". The Toronto Star. p. A11.
  3. ^ Spears, John (September 15, 1991). "N.B. opposition makes a fight of it - for 2nd place". The Toronto Star. p. B8.
  4. ^ Flaherty, Elaine (August 23, 1991). "Clear sailing for McKenna; Three opposition parties will scramble for few dissenting votes". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
  5. ^ Spears, John (August 22, 1991). "McKenna calls Sept. 23 vote". The Toronto Star. p. A2.
  6. ^ Sheppard, Robert (June 29, 1991). "Rallying around a political ghost". The Globe and Mail. p. A15.
  7. ^ Cox, Kevin (April 9, 1991). "N.B. parties gearing up to slay giant: McKenna's Liberals in no hurry to end one-party government". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
  8. ^ Cox, Kevin (March 26, 1990). "N.B. may head to polls within next year". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
  9. ^ a b "McKenna still on top, poll finds". The Globe and Mail. February 14, 1990. p. N18.
  10. ^ Cox, Kevin (March 26, 1990). "N.B. may head to polls within next year". The Globe and Mail. p. A8.
  11. ^ Spears, John (September 10, 1989). "Anti-bilingual movement takes formal root in N.B". The Toronto Star. p. A13.

Further reading

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