2012 Bahamian general election
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All 38 seats in the House of Assembly 20 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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   Results in New Providence (top), Family Island (centre) and Grand Bahama (bottom) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections were held in the Bahamas on 7 May 2012. They were the first general election in which a third party (the Democratic National Alliance) offered a full slate of candidates alongside the two major parties, the Free National Movement and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).[1] The result was a victory for the opposition PLP, whose leader Perry Christie became prime minister.
Background
[edit]The Free National Movement had defeated the Progressive Liberal Party in the 2007 general election amid a scandal involving the residency status of model and reality television star Anna Nicole Smith and allegations that the PLP's then-immigration minister had fast-tracked her application to live in the islands.[2]
Opinion polls
[edit]An opinion poll was carried out by Public Domain, a market research and public opinion polling company, between 2 and 12 March 2012 that involved 501 respondents. A sample of this proportion only represented a maximum margin of error of 4.4 per cent. The poll showed that the Free National Movement's (FNM) core support was the highest at 30.5 per cent, followed by the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) at 23.7 per cent, and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) at 16.5 per cent. A total of 12.2 per cent of the sample were undecided voters. Also the poll revealed that the PLP's swing voters constituted 6.6 per cent of the sample; the largest swing voter percentage. They were followed by the DNA ( who had 5.2 per cent swing voters ) and the FNM ( who had 3.7 per cent swing voters ). Therefore, the total support for the FNM was around 34.2 per cent, which was followed by the PLP's 30.3 per cent and the DNA's 21.7 per cent. If any of the two leading parties were to win the support of the entire 12.2 per cent undecided voters, they would win the general election. A question was asked during the polling process that went, According to you, which party will win the next election?. The results were that the FNM would ( at 32% ), the PLP would ( at 32% ) and the DNA would ( at 8% ) win the next general election. The poll also reported that 52% of the electorate was against reelecting the incumbent Free National Movement, while 55.9% opposed electing the PLP and 64.5% rejected electing the DNA.[3]
Results
[edit]The opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) won a majority in a landslide election victory, taking 30 of the 38 seats in parliament.[2] PLP leader Perry Christie, who had previously served as Prime Minister, was sworn into office on 8 May 2012, at approximately 4 pm.[2]
Outgoing Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham announced his retirement from politics following the defeat of his Free National Movement (FNM).[2] He had served in Parliament for thirty-five years, winning re-election seven times, including 2012.[2] Ingraham told supporters, "I gave it the best I could and now I've been rejected by the public of the Bahamas...We had no indication from the general public they would go that way."[2] Ingraham then confirmed his retirement, saying, "I am going to go back to my little law office and enjoy life with my family."[2]
The Democratic National Alliance lost the only seat it held in the prior parliament (that of Branville McCartney, its founder and only MP) and elected no candidates.
 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | Seats | +/– | |
| Progressive Liberal Party | 75,815 | 48.62 | 29 | +11 | |
| Free National Movement | 65,633 | 42.09 | 9 | –14 | |
| Democratic National Alliance | 13,225 | 8.48 | 0 | New | |
| Bahamas Constitution Party | 96 | 0.06 | 0 | New | |
| Independents | 1,177 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 155,946 | 100.00 | 38 | –3 | |
| Valid votes | 155,946 | 99.91 | |||
| Invalid/blank votes | 142 | 0.09 | |||
| Total votes | 156,088 | 100.00 | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 171,932 | 90.78 | |||
| Source: Caribbean Elections | |||||
By constituency
[edit]| Electoral District Total votes |
Candidates | Incumbent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free National Movement | Progressive Liberal Party | Democratic National Alliance | Other | ||
| Bain Town and Grants Town 4,962 |
John Henry Bostwick 1,754 (35.35%) |
Bernard Nottage 2,856 (57.56%) |
Rodney Moncur 333 (6.71%) |
Mario Clarke (IND) 19 (0.38%) |
Bernard Nottage |
| Bamboo Town 4,952 |
Cassius Stuart 1,661 (33.54%) |
Renward Wells 1,940 (39.18%) |
Branville McCartney 1,022 (20.64%) |
Craig Butler (IND) 329 (6.64%) |
Branville McCartney |
| Carmichael 4,769 |
Darron Cash 2,063 (43.26%) |
Daniel Johnson 2,157 (45.23%) |
Theofanis Chochinamogulos 527 (11.05%) |
Glen Rolle (IND) 22 (0.46%) |
Desmond Bannister |
| Cat Island, Rum Cay & San Salvador 1,480 |
Michael Pintard 693 (46.82%) |
Philip "Brave" Davis 778 (52.57%) |
Shawn Francis 9 (0.61%) |
Philip Brave Davis | |
| Central and South Abaco 2,967 |
Edison Key 1,490 (50.22%) |
Gary Sawyer 1,235 (41.62%) |
Roscoe Thompson 242 (8.16%) |
Edison Key | |
| Central and South Eleuthera 2,775 |
Howard Johnson 1,326 (47.78%) |
Damian Gomez 1,392 (50.16%) |
William Hunt 57 (2.05%) |
James Ingraham | |
| Central Grand Bahama 5,202 |
Neko Grant 2,505 (48.15%) |
Julian Russell 2,354 (45.25%) |
Howard Grant, Jr. 343 (6.59%) |
New district | |
| Centreville 4,853 |
Ella Lewis 1,601 (32.99%) |
Perry Christie 2,950 (60.79%) |
Celi Moss 302 (6.22%) |
New district | |
| East Grand Bahama 4,758 |
Peter Turnquest 2,239 (47.06%) |
Tanisha Tynes 2,060 (43.30%) |
Ferline Bridgewater-Thomas 402 (8.45%) |
Philip Thomas (IND) 57 (1.20%) |
New district |
| Elizabeth 4,372 |
Duane Sands 1,925 (44.03%) |
Ryan Pinder 2,049 (46.87%) |
Charlene Paul 385 (8.81%) |
Jay Armbrister (IND) 13 (0.30%) |
Ryan Pinder |
| Englerston 4,806 |
Caron Shepard 1,576 (32.79%) |
Glenys Hanna Martin 2,962 (61.63%) |
Nicholas Jacques 219 (4.56%) |
S. Ali McIntosh (BCP) 18 (0.37%) Paul Rolle (IND) 5 (0.10%) C. Rashard Amahad (IND) 7 (0.15%) Alexander Morley (IND) 19 (0.40%) |
Glenys Hanna Martin |
| Exumas and Ragged Island 2,697 |
Phenton Neymour 1,235 (45.79%) |
Anthony Moss 1,355 (50.24%) |
Floyd Ambrister 94 (3.49%) |
Colin Miller (BCP) 8 (0.30%) Reginald Smith (IND) 5 (0.19%) |
Anthony Moss |
| Fort Charlotte 4,620 |
Zhivargo Laing 1,975 (42.75%) |
Andre Rollins 2,126 (46.02%) |
Mark Humes 519 (11.23%) |
Alfred Sears | |
| Fox Hill 4,370 |
Shonell Ferguson 1,571 (35.95%) |
Fred Mitchell 2,448 (56.02%) |
Kendal Smith 351 (8.03%) |
Fred Mitchell | |
| Garden Hills 4,512 |
Brensil Rolle 1,913 (42.40%) |
Kendal Major 2,181 (48.34%) |
Kelphene Cunningham 382 (8.47%) |
Paul Moss (IND) 36 (0.80%) |
Brensil Rolle |
| Golden Gates 4,822 |
Winsome Miller 1,556 (32.27%) |
Shane Gibson 2,831 (58.71%) |
Allsworth Pickstock 435 (9.02%) |
Shane Gibson | |
| Golden Isles 4,614 |
Charles Maynard 1,813 (39.29%) |
Michael Halkitis 2,220 (48.11%) |
Farrell Goff 581 (12.59%) |
Michael Halkitis | |
| Killarney 4,598 |
Hubert Minnis 2,434 (52.94%) |
Jerome Gomez 1,642 (35.71%) |
Prodesta Moore 522 (11.35%) |
Hubert Minnis | |
| Long Island 1,729 |
Loretta Butler-Turner 979 (56.62%) |
Alex Storr 531 (30.71%) |
Mario Cartwright 219 (12.67%) |
Lawrence Cartwright | |
| Mangrove Cay and South Andros 2,037 |
Ronald Bostfield 532 (26.12%) |
Picewell Forbes 794 (38.98%) |
Wayde Forbes 85 (4.17%) |
Whitney Bastian (IND) 626 (30.73%) |
Picewell Forbes |
| Marathon 4,408 |
Heather Hunt 1,907 (43.26%) |
Jerome Fitzgerald 2,164 (49.09%) |
Karen Davis 337 (7.65%) |
Earl Deveaux | |
| Marco City 5,112 |
Norris Bain 2,287 (44.74%) |
Gregory Moss 2,528 (49.45%) |
Tolonus Sands 284 (5.56%) |
Leslie Minus (IND) 13 (0.25%) |
Zhivargo Laing |
| Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins and Long Cay 1,325 |
Sidney Collie 650 (49.06%) |
V. Alfred Gray 672 (50.72%) |
Jamarl Chea 3 (0.23%) |
V. Alfred Gray | |
| Montagu 4,750 |
Richard Lightbourn 2,227 (46.88%) |
Frank Smith 1,999 (42.08%) |
Benjamin Albury 514 (10.82%) |
Graham Weatherford (IND) 10 (0.21%) |
Loretta Turner |
| Mount Moriah 4,746 |
Tommy Turnquest 2,013 (42.41%) |
Arnold Forbes 2,262 (47.66%) |
Wayne Munroe 471 (9.92%) |
Tommy Turnquest | |
| Nassau Village 4,692 |
Basil Moss 1,518 (32.35%) |
Dion Smith 2,308 (49.19%) |
Christopher Mortimer 834 (17.77%) |
Simon Smith (BCP) 32 (0.68%) |
New district |
| North Abaco 4,130 |
Hubert Ingraham 2,235 (54.12%) |
Renardo Curry 1,856 (44.94%) |
Sonith Lockhart 39 (0.94%) |
Hubert Ingraham | |
| North Andros and Berry Islands 2,445 |
Desmond Bannister 1,168 (47.77%) |
Perry Gomez 1,192 (48.75%) |
Randy Butler 85 (3.48%) |
Vincent Peet | |
| North Eleuthera 3,520 |
Theo Neilly 1,787 (50.77%) |
Clay Sweeting 1,686 (47.90%) |
George Taylor 47 (1.34%) |
Alvin Smith | |
| Pineridge 4,637 |
Kwasi Thompson 1,808 (38.99%) |
Michael Darville 2,635 (56.83%) |
Osman Johnson 194 (4.18%) |
James Thompson | |
| Pinewood 4,419 |
Byron Woodside 1,763 (39.90%) |
Khaalis Rolle 2,231 (50.49%) |
Wellington Woods 409 (9.26%) |
Elkin Sutherland (IND) 16 (0.36%) |
Byron Woodside |
| Sea Breeze 4,556 |
Carl Bethel 1,897 (41.64%) |
Hope Strachan 2,095 (45.98%) |
Alfred Poitier 543 (11.92%) |
Brenda T. Harris (BCP) 21 (0.46%) |
Carl Bethel |
| South Beach 4,450 |
Monique Gomez 1,785 (40.11%) |
Cleola Hamilton 2,029 (45.60%) |
Wallace Rolle 619 (13.91%) |
James Williams (BCP) 17 (0.38%) |
Phenton Neymour |
| Southern Shores 4,342 |
Kenyatta Gibson 1,762 (40.58%) |
Kendrick Dorsett 2,080 (47.90%) |
Madeline Sawyer 500 (11.52%) |
New district | |
| St. Anne's 4,337 |
Hubert Chipman 2,348 (54.14%) |
Gregory Burrows 1,532 (35.32%) |
Prince Smith 457 (10.54%) |
Brent Symonette | |
| Tall Pines 4,451 |
Karen Butler 1,549 (34.80%) |
Leslie Miller 2,516 (56.53%) |
Dario Terrelli 386 (8.67%) |
New district | |
| West Grand Bahama & Bimini 5,191 |
Pakesia Parker 2,233 (43.02%) |
Obediah Wilchcombe 2,877 (55.42%) |
Rodger Rolle 81 (1.56%) |
Obediah Wilchcombe | |
| Yamacraw 4,522 |
Dion Foulkes 1,856 (41.04%) |
Melanie Griffin 2,292 (50.69%) |
Maurice Smith 374 (8.27%) |
Melanie Griffin | |
| Source: Bahamas Elections | |||||
Proportionality
[edit]The table below presents the proportionality of parliamentary seats won in the 2012 election, as measured by the Gallagher index. This election yielded an index score of 24.28, indicating a highly disproportionate outcome that strongly favoured the PLP while being significantly disadvantageous for others.
| Gallagher index for the 2012 Bahamian general election | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | % of votes | seats won | % of seats | difference | difference squared | |
| PLP | 48.62 | 29 | 76.32 | 27.70 | 767.29 | |
| FNM | 42.09 | 9 | 23.68 | (18.41) | 338.93 | |
| DNA | 8.48 | 0 | 0 | (8.48) | 71.91 | |
| Other | 0.81 | 0 | 0 | (0.81) | 0.66 | |
| Total | 100.00 | 38 | 100.00 | (0.00) | 1,178.79 | |
| Difference halved | 589.395 | |||||
| Square root | 24.28 | |||||
References
[edit]- ^ The Bahamas General Election Results - 7 May 2012 Caribbean Elections
- ^ a b c d e f g Charles, Jacqueline (8 May 2012). "Bahamas swears in new leader as ex-prime minister calls the quits". Miami Herald. Retrieved 8 May 2012.
- ^ Candia Dames (29 March 2012). "FNM and PLP in Statistical dead heat". The Nassau Guardian.
External links
[edit]| General elections | |
|---|---|
| Referendums | |
