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2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

← 2010 November 4, 2014 2018 →
 
Nominee Terry Branstad Jack Hatch
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kim Reynolds Monica Vernon
Popular vote 666,032 420,787
Percentage 58.99% 37.27%

Branstad:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hatch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Terry Branstad
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry Branstad
Republican

The 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Republican incumbent Terry Branstad ran for reelection to a sixth overall and second consecutive four-year term.[1] Branstad went on to win a historic sixth term as governor by defeating Democratic challenger and State Senator Jack Hatch, and on December 14, 2015, he became the longest-serving governor in American history. He won 59.1% of the popular vote to Hatch's 37.3%, and carried every county in the state except Johnson, home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad
Tom
Hoefling
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 303 ± 3.3% 66% 12% 22%
Loras College April 7–8, 2014 600 ± 4.0% 80% 4% 14%
Suffolk University Archived November 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 3–8, 2014 224 ± 6.6% 70% 9% 21%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 283 ± 5.8% 70% 11% 18%

Results

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Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) 129,712 83.00
Republican Tom Hoefling 26,284 16.82
Republican Write-In 279 0.18
Total votes 156,275 100

Democratic primary

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Narcisse was disqualified from appearing on the ballot in the Democratic primary following a ruling by the Iowa Supreme Court[4] that upheld a lower court decision that held that Narcisse had not submitted enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot for the primary election. Narcisse continued his campaign and declared his intention to run for the nomination as a write-in candidate.[5] When he was unsuccessful, he announced that he would be running in the general election as the nominee of the Iowa Party.[6][7]

Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jack Hatch
Tyler Olson
Individuals
Organizations

Results

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Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Hatch 60,404 99.26
Democratic Write-in 448 0.74
Total votes 60,852 100

General election

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Candidates

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  • Jim Hennager (New Independent Party), administrator, former city councillor and Reform Party nominee for governor in 1998[33]
  • Running mate: Mary Krieg
  • Lee Hieb (Libertarian), orthopedic surgeon[34]
  • Running mate: Ryan Ketelsen, businessman[34]
  • Jonathan Narcisse (Iowa Party), former member of the Des Moines School Board and nominee for governor in 2010[6][7][9]
  • Running mate: Michael Richards, semi-retired businessman[35]

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[36] Likely R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[38] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[39] Safe R November 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 1,265 ± 2.8% 51% 40% 5%[40] 5%
54% 43% 4%
Quinnipiac University October 28–November 2, 2014 778 ± 3.5% 52% 41% 2% 6%
Iowa Poll October 28–31, 2014 701 ± 3.7% 59% 35% 2% 4%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,112 ± 4.4% 49% 35% 4% 13%
Fox News October 28–30, 2014 911 ± 3% 53% 36% 5% 6%
Reuters/Ipsos October 23–29, 2014 1,129 ± 3.3% 57% 34% 4% 5%
Quinnipiac October 22–27, 2014 817 ± 3.4% 56% 37% 2% 5%
Loras College October 21–24, 2014 1,121 ± 2.93% 55% 34% 2% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,322 ± 3% 50% 37% 0% 13%
NBC News/Marist October 18–22, 2014 772 LV ± 3.5% 59% 36% 2% 4%
1,052 RV ± 3% 58% 34% 2% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 20–21, 2014 964 ± 3% 53% 43% 4%
Monmouth University October 18–21, 2014 423 ± 4.8% 58% 37% 3% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 15–21, 2014 964 ± 3.2% 55% 37% 2% 5%
Suffolk University Archived October 17, 2014, at the Wayback Machine October 11–14, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 54% 37% 3%[41] 7%
Quinnipiac University October 8–13, 2014 967 ± 3.2% 54% 39% 1% 6%
The Iowa Poll October 3–8, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 54% 39% 4%
Magellan October 3, 2014 1,299 ± 2.8% 55% 39% 7%
NBC News/Marist September 27–October 1, 2014 778 LV ± 3.5% 58% 36% 1% 5%
1,093 RV ± 3% 58% 35% 1% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,359 ± 2% 52% 39% 0% 9%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014 522 ± 4% 51% 43% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,192 ± 2.8% 50% 36% 4%[42] 9%
52% 38% 10%
Iowa Poll September 21–24, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 48% 34% 6%[43] 12%
Rasmussen Reports September 17–18, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 40% 3% 10%
FOX News September 14–16, 2014 600 ± 4% 50% 37% 4% 8%
Quinnipiac September 10–15, 2014 1,167 ± 2.9% 60% 37% 1% 3%
Loras College September 2–5, 2014 1,200 ± 2.82% 56% 34% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 1,764 ± 3% 51% 38% 1% 10%
Suffolk Archived September 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine August 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 47% 35% 2%[44] 16%
Public Policy Polling August 22–24, 2014 915 ± 3.2% 48% 35% 5%[40] 12%
50% 37% 13%
Rasmussen Reports August 11–12, 2014 750 ± 4% 52% 35% 6% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 2,044 ± 2.7% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Gravis Marketing July 17–18, 2014 1,179 ± 3% 50% 42% 9%
NBC News/Marist July 7–13, 2014 1,599 ± 2.5% 53% 38% 1% 9%
Quinnipiac June 12–16, 2014 1,277 ± 2.7% 47% 38% 1% 14%
Vox Populi Polling Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–5, 2014 665 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Loras College June 4–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 52% 38% 11%
Rasmussen Reports June 4–5, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 40% 2% 8%
Global Strategy Group May 13–15, 2014 602 ± 4% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 48% 40% 12%
Victory Enterprises April 30–May 1, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 48% 33% 20%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30 500 ± 4.4% 50% 40% 10%
Vox Populi Polling Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 19–20, 2014 677 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 19%
Suffolk University Archived November 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 3–8, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 42% 32% 2%[45] 24%
Quinnipiac March 5–10, 2014 1,411 ± 2.6% 46% 35% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co. February 23–26, 2014 703 ± 3.7% 44% 29% 27%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 48% 36% 15%
Quinnipiac December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 49% 33% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co. December 8–11, 2013 325 ± ?% 52% 29% 8% 11%
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 35% 18%
Selzer & Co. June 2–5, 2013 591 ± 4% 55% 27% 9% 9%
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 48% 33% 19%
Hypothetical polling

}

With Branstad
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bruce
Braley (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 41% 11%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 44% 40% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 42% 11%
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 44% 42% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 50% 36% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bob
Krause (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 49% 31% 1% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Dave
Loebsack (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 48% 38% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac December 10–15, 2013 1,617 ± 2.4% 50% 32% 1% 17%
Selzer & Co. December 8–11, 2013 325 ± ?% 51% 28% 8% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 47% 33% 20%
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 31% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tom
Vilsack (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 1–3, 2013 846 ± % 47% 46% 8%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 1,181 ± 2.85% 43% 46% 11%
With Hoefling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Hoefling (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% 30% 37% 33%
Suffolk University Archived November 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine April 3–8, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 23% 35% 3%[45] 39%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% 30% 34% 36%
With Reynolds
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 38% 42% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 37% 37% 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 36% 33% 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 5–7, 2013 668 ± 3.8% 36% 32% 32%

Results

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2014 Iowa gubernatorial election[46]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) / Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 666,032 58.99% +6.18%
Democratic Jack Hatch / Monica Vernon 420,787 37.27% −5.94%
Libertarian Lee Deakins Hieb / Tim Watson 20,321 1.80% +0.52%
Independent Jim Hennager / Mary Margaret Krieg 10,582 0.94% N/A
Iowa Jonathan R. Narcisse / Michael L. Richards 10,240 0.91% −0.95%
n/a Write-ins 1,095 0.09% n/a
Total votes 1,129,057 100.00% n/a
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Branstad won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[47]

District Branstad Hatch Representative
1st 55.95% 40.98% Rod Blum
2nd 56.66% 39.85% Dave Loebsack
3rd 56.55% 38.79% David Young
4th 67.25% 29.39% Steve King

References

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  1. ^ a b "Governor Terry Branstad announces gubernatorial run, tours Iowa". KWWL. Archived from the original on January 16, 2014. Retrieved January 15, 2014.
  2. ^ "HAYWORTH: Republican Hoefling aiming to challenge Branstad in 2014". Sioux City Journal. March 4, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  3. ^ a b "Official Iowa Secretary of State Elections Results". Iowa Secretary of State. June 3, 2014. Archived from the original on June 8, 2014. Retrieved June 5, 2014.
  4. ^ Iowa Supreme Court (March 31, 2014). "Opinion in Narcisse v. Schultz, No. 14-0512" (PDF). Retrieved April 3, 2014.
  5. ^ Bleeding Heartland (April 1, 2014). "IA-Gov: Iowa Supreme Court rejects Narcisse bid for spot on primary ballot". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
  6. ^ a b The Des Moines Register (July 30, 2014). "Jonathan Narcisse to run for governor as third-party candidate". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  7. ^ a b The Des Moines Register (August 9, 2014). "Register Soapbox: Governor candidate Jonathan Narcisse". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  8. ^ Noble, Jason (September 16, 2013). "State Sen. Jack Hatch officially enters 2014 race for Iowa governor". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on September 16, 2013. Retrieved September 16, 2013.
  9. ^ a b Horsch, Lauren (January 18, 2014). "Narcisse says he'll seek Democratic nomination in gubernatorial race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 20, 2014.
  10. ^ Hayworth, Bret (October 2, 2013). "4th Democrat enters race for governor; Sioux City stop planned". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  11. ^ Koplan, Tal (December 17, 2013). "State Rep. Tyler Olson drops Terry Branstad challenge". Politico. Retrieved December 17, 2013.
  12. ^ a b Noble, Jason; Jacobs, Jennifer (May 10, 2013). "New Hatch committee aimed at run for governor". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved May 12, 2013.
  13. ^ Jacobs, Jennifer (February 12, 2014). "Democrat Chet Culver: I won't run for public office in 2014". Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on February 12, 2014. Retrieved February 12, 2014.
  14. ^ Jacobs, Jennifer (June 4, 2013). "Waterloo Democrat Jeff Danielson won't run for higher office". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on June 20, 2013. Retrieved June 5, 2013.
  15. ^ Jacobs, Jennifer (August 30, 2013). "Democrat Mike Fitzgerald rules out a run for Iowa governor". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 30, 2013.
  16. ^ a b Jacobs, Jennifer (July 30, 2013). "Democrats Mike Gronstal and Pam Jochum won't run for governor (updated)". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 30, 2013.
  17. ^ a b Petroski, William (October 11, 2013). "Hatch names steering committee for Iowa governor's race". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  18. ^ a b "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. 2 January 2014. Archived from the original on 3 January 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2014.
  19. ^ Dorman, Todd (January 2, 2014). "Petersen won't run for governor". The Gazette. Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  20. ^ Jacobs, Jennifer (June 5, 2013). "Tom Vilsack won't run for Iowa governor again". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved June 5, 2013.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai "IA-Gov: Hatch rolls out campaign, Olson rolls out endorsements (updated)". Bleeding Heartland. September 16, 2013. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  22. ^ a b c d e f g h i "IA-Gov: Leonard Boswell, 14 legislators endorse Jack Hatch (updated)". Bleeding Heartland. October 10, 2013. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  23. ^ "Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Jack Hatch running "Smokey and the Branstad" ad (updated)". Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  24. ^ Danielson, Jeff (August 20, 2013). "Why Tyler Has My Support". Tyler Olson for Governor. Archived from the original on August 30, 2013. Retrieved August 29, 2013.
  25. ^ "Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Bob Dvorsky is third senator to endorse Tyler Olson". Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  26. ^ "Sue Dvorsky on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  27. ^ a b c "Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Tyler Olson evokes "fresh leadership" for "the next thirty years"". Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  28. ^ Hon, Dave (October 15, 2013). "Rep. Dan Kelley endorses Tyler Olson for governor". Newton Daily News. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  29. ^ "Janet Petersen on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  30. ^ "State's largest union backs Olson for governor". WCF Courier. October 30, 2013. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
  31. ^ "Tyler Olson claims first union endorsement of Democratic race for governor". Des Moines Register. September 19, 2013. Retrieved September 23, 2013.
  32. ^ Noble, Jason (June 18, 2014). "Monica Vernon signs on as Jack Hatch's lieutenant governor". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on June 18, 2014. Retrieved June 18, 2014.
  33. ^ "Meet the Candidate: Iowa Governor: Jim Hennager, New Independent Party Iowa". Des Moines Register. October 14, 2014. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  34. ^ a b Aronsen, Gavin (March 25, 2014). "Iraq war vet among libertarians nominated at state convention". Ames Tribune. Retrieved June 18, 2014.
  35. ^ James Q. Lynch (July 31, 2014). "Iowa Party lieutenant governor candidate hopes to tap voter discontent". The Gazette. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  36. ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  37. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  38. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  39. ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  40. ^ a b Jim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  41. ^ Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  42. ^ Jim Hennager (NIP) 3%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  43. ^ Jim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 3%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  44. ^ Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 0%
  45. ^ a b Lee Hieb (L)
  46. ^ "2014 General election. Canvass summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
  47. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
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Official campaign websites (Archived)