Juglar cycle
| Cycle/wave name | Period (years) |
|---|---|
| Kitchin cycle (inventory, e.g. pork cycle) | 3–5 |
| Juglar cycle (fixed investment) | 7–11 |
| Kuznets swing (infrastructural investment) | 15–25 |
| Kondratiev wave (technological basis) | 45–60 |
The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clément Juglar.[1] Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.[2]
The 7 years cycle is related to the buildup of debt and is known since biblical times: "At the end of every seven-year period you shall have a relaxation of debts" (Deuteronomy 15:1-2).
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Des Crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, en Angleterre, et aux Etats-Unis. Paris: Guillaumin, 1862. (in French)
- ^ See, e.g. Korotayev, Andrey V.; Tsirel, Sergey V. (2010). "A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis". Structure and Dynamics. 4 (1): 3–57.
Further reading
[edit]- Lewis, W. Arthur (1978). Growth and Fluctuations 1870–1913. London: Allen & Unwin. pp. 33–68. ISBN 0-04-300072-X.
- Morgan, Mary S. (1990). The History of Econometric Ideas. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 40–44. ISBN 0-521-37398-0.