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List of countries by total fertility rate

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A 2024 map of countries by fertility rate. Blue indicates negative fertility rates. Red indicates positive rates.

This is a list of all sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate (TFR): the expected number of children born per woman in her child-bearing years.

Methodology

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The first lists show the most recent year where there is published total fertility rate (TFR) data ranked by sovereign states and dependencies, and are ordered by organization type – intergovernmental, governmental, or non-governmental organization that searched, organized, and published the data.

Country ranking by most recent years lists:

International organizations ranking lists

The United Nations Population Fund ranking is based on the data for the 2022 published online.[1] The United Nations Population Fund (formerly the United Nations Fund for Population Activities - UNFPA) is an UN agency aimed at improving reproductive and maternal health worldwide. This agency collects and analyses information on demography issues based on its own work and national sources.

The World Bank ranking list is based on the data for the year 2020 published online.[2] The World Bank is a United Nations international financial institution, a component of the World Bank Group, and a member of the United Nations Development Group, but it also collects and analyses information on demography issues based on international and national sources: (1) United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects, (2) United Nations Statistics Division: Population and Vital Statistics Report (various years), (3) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (4) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (5) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme, and (6) U.S. Census Bureau International Database.

Note: Sometimes the World Bank changes its figures of fertility rates for a certain year due to more accurate and updated information from sources. Because of that, sometimes it is necessary to update World Bank figures for fertility rates more than once for the same year.

Governmental organizations ranking lists

The CIA ranking list is sourced from the CIA World Factbook for the most recent year[3][4] unless otherwise specified. Sovereign states and countries are ranked. Some countries might not be listed because they are not fully recognized as countries at the time of this census.

The INED - Institut National d'Études Démographiques is based on the online publication Population & Sociétés - Tous les pays du monde (2019), number 569, September 2019.[5]

Non-governmental organizations ranking lists

The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) ranking list is based on the data of the 2024 World Population Data Sheet[6] published online. The PRB[7] is a private, nonprofit organization which informs people around the world about population, health and the environment for research or academic purposes. It was founded in 1929. World Population Data Sheets are double-sided wallcharts (now published online) that present detailed information on demographic, health and environment indicators for more than 200 countries.

The Our World in Data (OWID) Country ranking 2019 list is sourced and based on the OWID website (on the clickable map and quoted sources).[8][9] (OWID) is an online publication that presents empirical research and data that show how living conditions around the world are changing. The aim is to show how the world is changing and why. The publication is developed at the University of Oxford and authored by social historian and development economist Max Roser.


Notes:

1- Changes in figures of fertility rates by country from one year to another do not always reflect an actual increase or decrease of fertility rates in a certain country, but instead reflect a change made due to more accurate and updated information from sources.

2- Figures of fertility rates by country and their ranking are based on single referenced sources, from organizations that investigate demographic issues. In several instances, they do not correspond with other sources, such as other organizations and sources that are referenced in the individual demographics by country, which can be accessed by clicking on the names of the countries. These differences can be due to several factors, including primary sources, data quality, and methodology.


Replacement rates

Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels, assuming that mortality rates remain constant and net migration is zero.[10] If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself.[10] The replacement fertility rate is 2.1 births per female for most developed countries (in the United Kingdom, for example), but can be as high as 3.5 in undeveloped countries because of higher mortality rates, especially child mortality.[11] The global average for the replacement total fertility rate, eventually leading to a stable global population, for the contemporary period, 2010–2015, is 2.3 children per female.[11][12]


Comparison ranking lists:

The Our World in Data (OWID) Country ranking and comparison by TFR: 1950 and 2015 list is sourced and based on the OWID website (on the clickable map and quoted sources).[13][14] Our World in Data (OWID) is an online publication that aims to show how and why the world is changing using empirical research and data. The publication is developed at the University of Oxford and authored by social historian and development economist Max Roser.

The World Bank Country ranking and comparison by TFR: 1960 and 2015 list is sourced and based on the online published demographic data of the World Bank website (on the clickable map and quoted sources).[15]

The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) Country ranking and comparison by TFR: 1970 and 2013 list is sourced and based on the data of the 2014 World Population Data Sheet,[16] which was published online.[17][18]

Forecast/prediction ranking lists:

The UN ranking list is sourced from the United Nations World Population Prospects. Figures are from the 2015 revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects report, for the period 2015–2020, using the medium assumption.[19][20] and from the 2019 revision United Nations World Population Prospects report, for the period 2020–2025, using the medium assumption.[21] The United Nations Population Division, part of the DESA - Department of Economic and Social Affairs,[22] ranking list is based on the forecast/prediction for the years 2015-2020 and 2020-2025.[23][24]

Only countries/territories with a population of 100,000 or more in 2019 are included. Rankings are based on the 2015–2020 and 2020-2025 figures.

Country ranking by most recent year

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Country ranking by international organizations

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Note: (-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

Country ranking by governmental organizations

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Note:

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

Note:

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.


Country ranking and comparison of TFR by year

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1950 and 2015

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1950 list by Our World in Data 2015 list by Our World in Data

Notes:

(→) Country that changed name and flag, dependent territory that is now an independent country (sovereign state) from another current or extinct (dissolved) state or empire, former dependent territory from a sovereign state or empire that was included in another sovereign state.

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

1960 and 2015

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1960 list by the World Bank 2015 list by the World Bank

Notes:

(→) Country that changed name and flag, dependent territory that is now an independent country (sovereign state) from another current or extinct (dissolved) state or empire, former dependent territory from a sovereign state or empire that was included in another sovereign state.

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

1970 and 2014

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1970 list by the Population Reference Bureau 2014 list by the Population Reference Bureau

Notes:

(→) Country that changed name and flag, dependent territory that is now an independent country (sovereign state) from another current or extinct (dissolved) state or empire, former dependent territory from a sovereign state or empire that was included in another sovereign state.

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

Country ranking by TFR forecast

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2018 forecast/prediction by the UN Population Division 2023 forecast/prediction by the UN Population Division

Note:

(-) Data unavailable, inapplicable, not collected, or country or dependent territory not included. Sovereign states and dependent territories listed by alphabetical order, not ranked.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b "World Population Dashboard".
  2. ^ a b "Fertility rate, total (Births per woman) | Data".
  3. ^ a b "Total fertility rate - the World Factbook".
  4. ^ a b "The World Factbook - the World Factbook".
  5. ^ a b "Tous les pays du monde (2019)". Archived from the original on 2019-09-23. Retrieved 2019-09-23.
  6. ^ https://2024-wpds.prb.org/
  7. ^ Population Reference Bureau. "Population Reference Bureau". Prb.org. Archived from the original on 2019-09-29. Retrieved 2018-01-04.
  8. ^ Roser, Max (2014-02-19). "Fertility Rate". Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 2020-11-21. Retrieved 2019-09-25.
  9. ^ Pietschmann, Max or Ernst Max. Benezit Dictionary of Artists. Oxford University Press. 2011-10-31. doi:10.1093/benz/9780199773787.article.b00141817. Archived from the original on 2021-05-25. Retrieved 2021-05-25.
  10. ^ a b Craig, J (1994). "Replacement level fertility and future population growth". Population Trends (78): 20–22. PMID 7834459. Archived from the original on 2022-04-12. Retrieved 2022-01-25.
  11. ^ a b Espenshade TJ, Guzman JC, Westoff CF (2003). "The surprising global variation in replacement fertility". Population Research and Policy Review. 22 (5/6): 575. doi:10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e. S2CID 10798893. Archived from the original on 2023-05-31. Retrieved 2023-05-31.
  12. ^ Gietel-Basten, Stuart; Scherbov, Sergei (December 2, 2019). "Is half the world's population really below 'replacement-rate'?". PLOS ONE. 14 (12): e0224985. Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1424985G. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0224985. PMC 6886770. PMID 31790416.
  13. ^ Roser, Max (19 February 2014). "Fertility Rate". Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 30 November 2017. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  14. ^ "Our World in Data". Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 22 February 2020. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  15. ^ "Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Data". data.worldbank.org. Archived from the original on 29 November 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  16. ^ Population Reference Bureau. "2014 World Population Data Sheet". Prb.org. Archived from the original on 2018-01-05. Retrieved 2018-01-04.
  17. ^ "Population Reference Bureau – Inform, Empower, Advance". prb.org. Archived from the original on 5 January 2018. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  18. ^ "Population Reference Bureau – Inform, Empower, Advance". prb.org. Archived from the original on 5 January 2018. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
  19. ^ United Nations. "World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations". Esa.un.org. Archived from the original on 2011-09-27. Retrieved 2018-01-04.
  20. ^ "Microsoft Word - Key Findings WPP 2015_Final.docx". Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-20. Retrieved 2018-01-04.
  21. ^ "World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations". population.un.org. Archived from the original on 2021-05-04. Retrieved 2021-05-25.
  22. ^ "United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and Social Affairs". www.un.org. Archived from the original on 2021-05-01. Retrieved 2021-05-25.
  23. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2015-08-16. Retrieved 2019-09-08.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  24. ^ "UNdata | record view | Total fertility rate (live births per woman)". data.un.org. Archived from the original on 2021-03-23. Retrieved 2021-05-25.
  25. ^ https://2024-wpds.prb.org/[bare URL]
  26. ^ https://www.prb.org/ [bare URL]
  27. ^ Roser, Max (19 February 2014). "Fertility Rate". Our World in Data.