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Obama coalition

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Barack Obama shaking hands with supporters in 2008
This article is part of
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Barack Obama
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Illinois State Senator and U.S. Senator from Illinois
44th President of the United States
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Barack Obama's signature
Seal of the President of the United States

The Obama coalition was the combination of various voting blocs that supported the candidacy and presidency of Barack Obama. It consisted primarily of racial minorities, along with women and young voters.[1] It allowed for high vote share among cities and suburbs, as well as among voters that self-described as moderate.[2] The coalition formed in 2007 and 2008 as Obama campaigned for the presidency. During the 2008 election, the strength of the coalition gave Obama 53% of the vote. In 2012, he won reelection with 51% of the vote along similar demographic lines.[3] This made Obama the first Democratic president since FDR to win the majority of the popular vote in multiple elections.

The weaknesses of the coalition became apparent during the two midterm elections that took place during Obama's presidency. During the 2010 midterms, significant portions of the coalition failed to turn out or defected to the Republican Party.[4][5] Similar results occurred in the 2014 midterms.[6] Hillary Clinton was described as attempting to continue the Obama coalition in order to win the presidential election in 2016,[7] with her loss marking a failure to maintain the coalition.[8][9]

During the 2020 Democratic Party presidential debates, Kamala Harris argued that it was necessary to "rebuild the Obama coalition" for the Democratic Party to win the election.[1] After receiving the Democratic nomination, Obama's former Vice President Joe Biden was described as requiring a new coalition due to shifts in voting patterns over the previous years; the white working-class had moved away from the coalition while women aligned with it in stronger numbers. Slight shifts had also taken place among suburban and nonwhite voters.[10] In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential election with the same voting blocs as the Obama coalition.[11] In 2024, the coalition was claimed to be largely fallen apart as working class of all races had moved away from the coalition, causing Kamala Harris to lose the election and the popular vote.[12][13]

Vote share

[edit]
Obama vote share by demographic subgroup
Demographic

subgroup

2008[14] 2012[15] 2008-12

Swing

Total vote 53 51 -2
Ideology
Liberals 89 86 -3
Moderates 60 56 -4
Conservatives 20 17 -3
Party
Democrats 89 92 3
Republicans 9 6 -3
Independents 52 45 -7
Gender
Men 49 45 -4
Women 56 55 -1
Marital status
Married 47 42 -5
Unmarried 65 62 -3
Race
White 43 39 -4
Black 95 93 -2
Asian 62 73 11
Other 66 58 -8
Hispanic 67 71 4
Religion
Protestant 45 42 -3
Catholic 54 50 -4
Jewish 78 69 -9
Other 73 74 1
None 75 70 -5
Religious service attendance
More than weekly 43 36 -7
Weekly 43 41 -2
Monthly 53 55 -2
A few times a year 59 56 -3
Never 67 62 -5
White evangelical or born-again Christian?
White evangelical or born-again Christian 24 21 -3
Everyone else 62 60 -2
Age
18–24 years old 66 60 -6
25–29 years old 66 60 -6
30–39 years old 54 55 1
40–49 years old 49 48 -1
50–64 years old 50 47 -3
65 and older 45 44 -1
Age by race
Whites 18–29 years old 54 44 -10
Whites 30–44 years old 41 38 -3
Whites 45–64 years old 42 38 -4
Whites 65 and older 40 39 -1
Blacks 18–29 years old 95 91 -4
Blacks 30–44 years old 96 94 -2
Blacks 45–64 years old 96 93 -3
Blacks 65 and older 94 93 -1
Latinos 18–29 years old 76 74 -2
Latinos 30–44 years old 63 71 8
Latinos 45–64 years old 58 68 10
Latinos 65 and older 68 65 -3
Others 64 67 3
Sexual orientation
LGBT 70 76 6
Heterosexual 53 49 -4
Education
Not a high school graduate 63 64 1
High school graduate 52 51 -1
Some college education 51 49 -2
College graduate 50 47 -3
Postgraduate education 58 55 -5
Union households
Union 59 58 -1
Non-union 51 49 -2
Issue regarded as most important
Economy 53 47 -6
Health care 73 75 2
Region
Northeast 59 59 0
Midwest 54 50 -4
South 45 46 1
West 57 54 -3

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Siders, David; Cadelago, Christopher; Barrón-López, Laura (2019). "To defeat Trump, Dems rethink the Obama coalition formula". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  2. ^ Smith, Ben; Martin, Jonathan (5 November 2008). "Why Obama won". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  3. ^ Cassidy, John (2012-11-06). ""Obama Coalition" Carries Him to Big Victory". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  4. ^ Rutenberg, Jim; Thee-Brenan, Megan (2010-10-27). "Obama Coalition Is Fraying, Poll Finds". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  5. ^ Best, Samuel (2010). "Why Democrats Lost the House to Republicans". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  6. ^ Seitz-Wald, Alex; Lee, Trymaine (2014). "The curse of the Obama coalition". MSNBC.com. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  7. ^ Gearan, Anne (2015). "Clinton is banking on the Obama coalition to win". The Washington Post.
  8. ^ Bailey, Issac (2016-11-09). "Is the Obama coalition finished?". CNN. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  9. ^ Cohn, Nate (2016-12-23). "How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  10. ^ Seitz-Wald, Alex (2020). "Obama had a coalition. Biden built a new one and here's how it's different". NBC News. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  11. ^ "Biden coalition built on broad but unstable foundation". POLITICO. 10 November 2020. Retrieved 2022-07-11.
  12. ^ Klein, Ezra (13 November 2024). "The End of the Obama Coalition". The New York Times.
  13. ^ "Requiem for the Obama Coalition". jacobin.com. Retrieved 2024-12-04.
  14. ^ "National Exit Poll". CNN. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  15. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved January 27, 2013.

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