2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
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| Elections in Oklahoma |
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The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Fellow Republican Tom Coburn won the open seat.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Brad Carson, U.S. Representative
- Carroll Fisher, Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner
- Jim Rogers, perennial candidate
- Monte E. Johnson, attorney
- W. B. G. Woodson
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[1] |
Margin of error |
Brad Carson |
Carroll Fisher |
Jim Rogers |
Monte Johnson |
W. B. G. Woodson |
Undecided/ Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[2] | June 25–27, 2004 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 61% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 13% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[3] | May 20–21, 2004 | 300 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 7% | 3% | 45% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brad Carson | 280,026 | 79.37% | |
| Democratic | Carroll Fisher | 28,385 | 8.05% | |
| Democratic | Jim Rogers | 20,179 | 5.72% | |
| Democratic | Monte E. Johnson | 17,274 | 4.90% | |
| Democratic | W. B. G. Woodson | 6,932 | 1.96% | |
| Total votes | 352,796 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Tom Coburn, former U.S. Representative
- Kirk Humphreys, former Mayor of Oklahoma City
- Bob Anthony, Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner
- Jay Richard Hunt, activist
Campaign
[edit]Humphreys, the former Mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy."[5] Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending.[6] Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.
Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[1] |
Margin of error |
Tom Coburn |
Kirk Humphreys |
Bob Anthony |
Jay Richard Hunt |
Linda Murphy |
Undecided/ Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[7] | July 23–25, 2004 | 517 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 25% | 13% | 8% | ||
| SurveyUSA[8] | July 16–18, 2004 | 436 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 32% | 12% | 10% | ||
| Club for Growth (R)[9] | July 11–12, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 22% | 8% | 19% | ||
| Consumer Logic[10] | July 8–12, 2004 | 291 (RV) | ± 5.9% | 37% | 34% | 7% | 1% | 21% | |
| SurveyUSA[2] | June 25–27, 2004 | 408 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 34% | 16% | 12% | ||
| CMA Strategies (R)[11] | June 6–8, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 34% | 36% | 10% | 20% | ||
| Wilson Research Strategies[3] | May 20–21, 2004 | 300 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 21% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 42% | |
| Consumer Logic[12] | Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004 | ± 5.9% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 32% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Coburn | 145,974 | 61.23% | |
| Republican | Kirk Humphreys | 59,877 | 25.12% | |
| Republican | Bob Anthony | 29,596 | 12.41% | |
| Republican | Jay Richard Hunt | 2,944 | 1.23% | |
| Total votes | 238,391 | 100.00% | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Sheila Bilyeu (I), perennial candidate[13]
- Brad Carson (D), United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
- Tom Coburn (R), former United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
Campaign
[edit]Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the War on Terrorism.[14] Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him.[15] Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell roots[16] and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly.[17] Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent.[18] Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2022, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[1] |
Margin of error |
Tom Coburn (R) |
Brad Carson (D) |
Sheila Bilyeu (I) |
Undecided/ Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[20] | October 28–30, 2004 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 39% | 8% | 6% |
| Sooner Poll[21] | October 27–28, 2004 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44.4% | 35.1% | 4.2% | 16.3% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[22] | October 22–24, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 38% | 6% | 15% |
| Sooner Poll[23] | October 20–21, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38.0% | 36.8% | 5.8% | 19.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | October 20, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% | |
| SurveyUSA[25] | October 18–20, 2004 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | 8% | 4% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[26] | August 18–20, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 45% | 11% | |
| Consumer Logic[27] | October 14–19, 2004 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 47% | 13% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[28] | October 15–17, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42.2% | 39.0% | 3.6% | 14.4% |
| Sooner Poll[29] | October 14, 2004 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 40.6% | 43.3% | 2.0% | 14.1% |
| Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)[30] | October 10–11, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 3% | 10% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[31][32] | October 8–10, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37.8% | 40.0% | 7.2% | 15.0% |
| Sooner Poll[33] | October 7, 2004 | 330 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 39.2% | 39.8% | 21.0% | |
| SurveyUSA[34] | October 4–6, 2004 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 44% | 5% | 5% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[35][36] | October 1–3, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 41.2% | 42.6% | 2.4% | 13.8% |
| Sooner Poll[37] | September 28–29, 2004 | 553 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 37.2% | 44.1% | 18.7% | |
| Basswood Research (R)[38] | September 27, 2004 | ± 4.4% | 41.0% | 39.6% | 2.4% | 17.0% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[39][40] | September 24–26, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 39.2% | 44.2% | 3.2% | 13.4% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[26] | September 24, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 40% | 44% | 16% | |
| Sooner Poll[41] | September 22, 2004 | 394 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 37.0% | 39.8% | 23.2% | |
| SurveyUSA[42] | September 20–22, 2004 | 610 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 45% | 6% | 4% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[43] | September 17–19, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 41% | 2% | 17% |
| Sooner Poll[44] | September 15, 2004 | 412 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 35% | 42% | 23% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[45] | September 10–12, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 39% | 6% | 18% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[43] | September 3–5, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 36% | 5% | 17% |
| Westhill Partners[46] | September 1–2, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 42% | 44% | 1% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[47] | August 16–18, 2004 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 43% | 10% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[48] | August 15–18, 2004 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 46% | 37% | 2% | 15% |
| Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)[49] | August 10–12, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 39% | 14% | |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[50] | August 8–11, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 43% | 12% | |
| Basswood Research (R)[51] | July 29, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43.5% | 31.8% | 24.7% | |
| Consumer Logic[10] | July 8–12, 2004 | 825 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 42% | 21% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[52] | June 28–29, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 35% | 1% | 27% |
| Wilson Research Strategies[3] | May 20–21, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 39% | 20% | |
| Consumer Logic[12] | Mar 26–Apr 5, 2004 | 825 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 37% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[1] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Humphreys (R) |
Brad Carson (D) |
Sheila Bilyeu (I) |
Undecided/ Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Logic[10] | July 8–12, 2004 | 825 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | 15% | |
| Wilson Research Strategies[52] | June 28–29, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 41% | 2% | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[1] |
Margin of error |
Bob Anthony (R) |
Brad Carson (D) |
Sheila Bilyeu (I) |
Undecided/ Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Research Strategies[52] | June 28–29, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 39% | 2% | 25% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Coburn | 763,433 | 52.77% | −13.62% | |
| Democratic | Brad Carson | 596,750 | 41.24% | +9.97% | |
| Independent | Sheila Bilyeu | 86,663 | 5.99% | ||
| Majority | 166,683 | 11.52% | −23.58% | ||
| Turnout | 1,446,846 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Atoka (Largest city: Atoka)
- Bryan (Largest city: Durant)
- Caddo (Largest city: Anadarko)
- Coal (Largest city: Coalgate)
- Cotton (Largest city: Walters)
- Craig (Largest city: Vinita)
- Greer (Largest city: Mangum)
- Harmon (Largest city: Hollis)
- Jefferson (Largest city: Waurika)
- Johnston (Largest city: Tishomingo)
- Kiowa (Largest city: Hobart)
- Le Flore (Largest city: Poteau)
- Love (Largest city: Marietta)
- Marshall (Largest city: Madill)
- Mayes (Largest city: Pryor Creek)
- Murray (Largest city: Sulphur)
- Nowata (Largest city: Nowata)
- Okfuskee (Largest city: Okemah)
- Osage (Largest city: Hominy)
- Pittsburg (Largest city: McAlester)
- Pushmataha (Largest city: Antlers)
- Seminole (Largest city: Seminole)
- Sequoyah (Largest city: Sallisaw)
- Tillman (Largest city: Frederick)
- Cherokee (Largest city: Tahlequah)
- Choctaw (Largest city: Hugo)
- Hughes (Largest city: Holdenville)
- Latimer (Largest city: Wilburton)
- McIntosh (Largest city: Checotah)
- Muskogee (Largest city: Muskogee)
- Okmulgee (Largest city: Okmulgee)
- Ottawa (Largest city: Miami)
- Delaware (Largest city: Grove)
- Adair (Largest city: Stilwell)
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b SurveyUSA
- ^ a b c Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ a b "Oklahoma State Election Board - Primary Election 2004". Archived from the original on August 30, 2010. Retrieved December 27, 2012.
- ^ Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (September 19, 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.
- ^ "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on July 23, 2011. Retrieved March 30, 2010.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Club for Growth (R)
- ^ a b c Consumer Logic
- ^ CMA Strategies (R)
- ^ a b Consumer Logic
- ^ Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.
- ^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube.
- ^ http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm[permanent dead link]
- ^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube.
- ^ "Carson's First Stand Should Feds Examine Nursing Homes? | News OK". newsok.com. Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
- ^ "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post.
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ a b Global Strategy Group (D)
- ^ Consumer Logic
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ p. 2
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ p. 2
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ Basswood Research (R)
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ p. 2
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ a b Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Sooner Poll
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Westhill Partners
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)
- ^ Global Strategy Group (D)
- ^ Basswood Research (R)
- ^ a b c Wilson Research Strategies
- ^ Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).