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User:Ed88/Draft of Polish parliamentary election, 2019

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Poll results

[edit]

Coalitions

[edit]
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[a] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / Onet 24 May 2019 35 38 5 5 2 6 9 3
Estymator 22-23 May 2019 38.3 39.2 5.7 5.7 2.6 7.9 0.6 0.9
IBSP / ZET 22-23 May 2019 42.5 36.3 7.2 4.9 1.7 7.0 0.4 6.2
Kantar Public / TVN 22-23 May 2019 34 36 6 4 3 8 1 8[b] 2
IPSOS 21-23 May 2019 35 40 7 7 2 8 1 5
CBOS 16-23 May 2019 28 43 3 6 1 5 14 15
Pollster 21-22 May 2019 37 35 6 7 4 10 1 2
Social Changes 17-22 May 2019 33.3 37.2 5.4 8.9 2.3 9.3 3.6 3.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 21 May 2019 35.0 38.7 6.0 4.9 0.0 6.3 9.1 3.7
Ariadna 18-21 May 2019 30 33 3 8 3 10 13 3
Kantar Public / "GW" 16-19 May 2019 36 35 8 3 1 10 0 7[c] 1
IBRiS / RMF 12-18 May 2019 34.7 37.9 5.5 5.6 2.2 7.6 6.5 3.2
Estymator 15-16 May 2019 38.5 40.3 4.9 5.1 3.1 7.6 0.5 1.8
IBSP / ZET 14-16 May 2019 43.6 32.9 6.9 4.9 2.2 9.1 0.4 10.7
Dobra Opinia 13-16 May 2019 37.1 38.7 4.9 6.4 3.6 8.4 0.7 0.2[d] 1.6
Kantar Public 10-15 May 2019 28 43 4 3 3 8 11 15
Social Changes 10-15 May 2019 31.4 36.6 4.2 8.3 1.7 14.3 3.5 5.2
Ariadna 10-13 May 2019 32 36 2 5 2 10 13 4
IBRiS / "Rz" 12 May 2019 34.0 39.1 4.2 5.3 2.4 7.1 0.4 7.5 5.1
Indicator 9-11 May 2019 31.9 35.1 5.4 8.4 19.2 3.2
Kantar Public / TVN 8-10 May 2019 33 34 6 5 2 8 0 12[e] 1
IBSP / ZET 7-9 May 2019 41.9 39.0 1.8 4.8 2.7 9.6 0.2 2.9
PARR / Onet 7 May 2019 34.5 38.7 4.3 5.2 2.4 8.7 1.3 4.9[f] 4.2
Social Changes April 30, 2019 32.6 36.8 2.9 8.5 2.9 12.5 3.8 4.2
Estymator April 30, 2019 36.9 42.1 3.8 6.0 2.9 7.7 0.6 5.2
Pollster April 28, 2019 33 39 5 7 3 10 2 1[g] 6
IBRiS / RMF April 27, 2019 33.0 38.7 4.3 5.4 3.2 8.2 0.2 7.0 5.7
IBSP / ZET April 26, 2019 37.7 40.3 5.6 3.7 1.3 11.0 0.4 2.6
Social Changes April 24, 2019 31.1 37.5 3.1 10.3 3.7 12.1 2.2 6.4
Indicator April 23, 2019 36.0 40.9 3.1 4.5 2.4 7.4 5.7 4.9
Estymator April 18, 2019 36.2 41.6 3.7 6.1 2.1 8.8 1.1 0.4 5.4
Social Changes April 17, 2019 30.8 36.1 4.7 9.1 3.6 10.9 4.8 5.3
Kantar Public / TVN April 16, 2019 35 38 5 6 2 10 4 3
IBRiS / ZET April 12, 2019 36.2 38.7 5.3 7.6 12.2 2.5
Kantar Public / "Polityka" April 12, 2019 23 35 5 6 1 8 1 21 12
CBOS April 11, 2019 27 41 2 3 1 4 2 20 14
Estymator April 11, 2019 37.7 42.0 3.8 6.1 1.6 7.6 1.2 0.0 4.3
Kantar Public April 10, 2019 27 36 2 4 4 7 1 19 9
Kantar Public / "GW" April 9, 2019 33 36 5 4 5 14 3 3
Dobra Opinia April 7, 2019 38.3 40.7 3.9 6.3 7.4 3.4 2.4
IBRiS / "Rz" April 6, 2019 38.3 39.4 4.5 5.6 0.8 3.4 2.2 5.8[h] 1.1
Pollster April 6, 2019 35 39 6 5 3 10 1 1[i] 4
PARR / Onet April 6, 2019 36.0 39.4 3.2 5.4 2.1 7.5 6.4 3.4
IBRiS / "Fakt" March 30, 2019 36.5 39.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 6.1 2.0 4.5 2.5
Kantar Public / PE March 29, 2019 39.3 38.2 3.1 4.4 2.3 6.5 1.4 4.8[j] 1.0
IBSP / ZET March 27, 2019 41.5 38.8 4.3 4.5 1.0 8.6 1.1 0.2[k] 2.7
Ariadna March 26, 2019 28.8 35.5 3.3 6.0 1.0 11.3 0.4 13.7 6.7
Estymator March 21, 2019 39.3 42.2 3.4 5.2 1.9 6.1 1.1 0.8 2.9
IBSP / PO March 20, 2019 41.8 39.4 3.9 5.0 1.2 7.5 1.2 0.0[l] 2.4
CBOS March 14, 2019 26 42 3 5 1 4 1 18[m] 16
IBRiS / ZET March 14, 2019 37.2 41.6 1.3 2.9 2.9 6.6 0.9 7.0[n] 4.4
Ariadna March 14, 2019 26.5 30.6 5.9 12.8 3.7 20.5 4.1
Millward Brown / "GW" March 11, 2019 35 33 3 7 4 5 13 2
IBRiS / "Rz" March 10, 2019 38 40 3 5 7 2 5 2
IBRiS March 7, 2019 38.5 39.7 4.1 5.1 0.9[o] 6.2 5.5 1.2
PARR / Onet March 6, 2019 34.0 36.1 2.7 5.9 1.0[o] 11.1 9.2 2.1
Pollster March 1, 2019 32 38 4 8 3[o] 12 2 1[p] 6
Kantar Public / PE March 1, 2019 37.5 36.3 5.1 7.3 1.6[o] 10.6 1.6 1.2
IBRiS / ZET February 19, 2019 38.5 34.7 3.7 6.6 1.7[o] 8.9 5.9 3.8
IPSOS[q] February 16, 2019 33.2 33.9 6.1 7.9 1.0[o] 12.0 5.9[r] 0.7
IBSP / ZET February 6, 2019 42.1 37.6 0.4 3.7 0.0[o] 8.3 8.0[s] 4.5
European Parliament Election May 25, 2014 48.7[t] 31.8 1.4[u] 18.1[v] 16.9

Parties

[edit]
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		Polish People's Party Kukiz'15 Nowoczesna Razem Spring Others /
Don't know 		Lead
Estymator February 21, 2019 33.4[w] 38.5 w. PO 5.1 7.0 w. PO 3.2[x] 1.8 10.2 0.8 5.1
IPSOS February 16, 2019 24.0 35.0 3.2 3.6 7.4 1.3 6.0[x] 0.6 11.9 7.0[y] 11.0
Kantar Public February 13, 2019 20 37 4 4 4 3 2[x] 1 10 15 17
IBRiS / "Rz" February 8, 2019 28 36 6 5 5 w. PO 12 8 8
IBSP / ZET February 6, 2019 31.6 36.8 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.8 9.9[s] 5.2
Kantar Public / PE January 28, 2019 32.7 40.0 6.7 4.5 4.2 2.2[x] 1.0 7.1 1.6 7.3
IPSOS[z] December 14, 2018 31.1[aa] 36.0 6.7[w] w. PO 6.3 w. PO 4.1[x] w. SLD 7.3 8.5[ab] 4.9
IPSOS December 14, 2018 27.3 38.9 3.6 5.1 5.1 w. PO 3.4[x] 1.8 7.0 7.8[ac] 11.6
IPSOS[ad][ae] December 14, 2018 26.1 36.8 4.7 4.9 6.1 w. PO 3.5[x] 1.4 8.0 8.5[af] 10.7
IBRiS / "Rz" December 8, 2018 34 34 5 4 5 w. PO 8 10[ag] Tie
IBRiS / "Rz" December 8, 2018 34 37 5 4 5 w. PO 7 8 3
IBRiS / "Fakt" May 9, 2018 38.8 38.4 7.4 4.3 5.1 w. PO 6.0 0.4
European Parliament Election May 25, 2014 32.1 31.8 9.4 6.8 19.9[ah] 0.3

Seat projections

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Coalitions

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Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[ai] Spring Others /
Don't know 		Lead
Estymator 22-23 May 2019 20[aj] 21 3 3 0 4 0 1
IPSOS 21-23 May 2019 19 22 3 3 0 4 0 3
Estymator May 16, 2019 22 23 0 2[ak] 0 4 0 1
Kantar Public May 15, 2019 18 29 0 0 0 5 0 11
PARR / Onet May 7, 2019 20 23 0 3 0 5 0 3
Estymator April 30, 2019 21 23[al] 0 3 0 4 0 2
IBSP / ZET April 26, 2019 21 22 3 0 0 6 0 1
Estymator April 18, 2019 20 23[am] 0 3 0 5 0 3
Kantar Public / "Polityka" April 12, 2019 16 24 2 4 0 5 0 8
Estymator April 11, 2019 21 24 0 3 0 4 0 3
Kantar Public April 10, 2019 20 27 0 0 0 5 0 7
Kantar Public / "GW" April 9, 2019 19 20 2 0 2 8 0 1
Dobra Opinia April 7, 2019 22 23 0 3 0 4 0 1
PARR / Onet April 6, 2019 21 24 0 3 0 0 4 3
IBRiS / "Fakt" March 30, 2019 22 24 0 3 0 3 0 2
Kantar Public / PE March 29, 2019 24 24 0 0 0 4 0 Tie
Estymator March 21, 2019 22 24 0 3 0 3 0 2
Millward Brown / "GW" March 11, 2019 22 20 0 4 0 6 0 2
IBRiS March 7, 2019 23 23 0 3 0[o] 3 0 Tie
PARR / Onet March 6, 2019 21 22 0 3 0[o] 6 0 1
Kantar Public / PE March 1, 2019 21 20 2 4 0[o] 5 0 1
IPSOS February 16, 2019 19 19 3 4 0[o] 7 0 Tie
European Parliament Election May 25, 2014 28[an] 19 4[ao] 9

Parties

[edit]
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		Polish People's Party Kukiz'15 Nowoczesna Razem Spring Others Lead
Estymator February 21, 2019 19[w] 22 w. PO 2 4 w. PO 0[x] 0 5 0 3
Kantar Public February 13, 2019 15 29 0 0 0 0 0[x] 0 8 0 14
Kantar Public / PE January 28, 2019 20 24 4 0 0 0[x] 0 4 0 4
IPSOS December 14, 2018 19[ap] 22 4[w] w. PO 3 w. PO 0[x] w. SLD 4 0 3
IPSOS December 14, 2018 18 25 0 0 4 w. PO 0[x] 0 5 0 7
European Parliament Election May 25, 2014 19 19 5 4 4[aq] Tie

Electoral districts

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1 – Gdańsk

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Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[ar] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / ZET March 26, 2019 47.5 29.9 4.6 4.3 1.1 5.3 0.8 6.5 17.6
European Parliament Election[2] May 25, 2014 59.2[as] 25.6 1.2[at] 14.0[au] 33.6

4 – Warsaw I

[edit]
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[av] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / ZET March 24, 2019 41.2 32.3 3.9 4.8 3.3 6.4 2.4 5.7[aw] 8.9
European Parliament Election[3] May 25, 2014 51.4[ax] 28.4 1.6[ay] 18.6[az] 23.0

7 – Poznań

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Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[ba] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / ZET April 2, 2019 41.2 33.2 4.4 5.3 0.9 6.7 0.5 7.8[bb] 8.0
European Parliament Election[4] May 25, 2014 56.3[bc] 24.4 1.2[bd] 11.2[be] 31.9

10 – Kraków

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Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[bf] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / ZET March 27, 2019 30.1 47.1 3.5 4.4 1.2 7.7 0.7 5.3[bg] 17.0
European Parliament Election[5] May 25, 2014 38.7[bh] 33.6 1.3[bi] 26.4[bj] 5.1

12 – Wrocław

[edit]
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling 		European Coalition Confed. Kukiz'15 Razem[bk] Spring PFP Others /
Don't know 		Lead
IBRiS / ZET April 2, 2019 39.3 31.8 2.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 10.9 7.5
European Parliament Election[6] May 25, 2014 54.2[bl] 27.1 1.3[bm] 10.2[bn] 27.1

Results

[edit]
2019 European election, Poland
← 2014 26 May 2019 (26 May 2019) 2024 →
All 52 Polish seats to the European Parliament
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Jacek Saryusz-Wolski Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz
(SLD) 		Robert Biedroń
Party PiS KE Wiosna
Alliance ECR EPP/S&D/G-EFA/ALDE S&D
Last election 38.92%, 19 seats[bo] 48.69%, 28 seats[bp] New party
Seats before 15 25 Did not exist
Seats won 27 22 3
Seat change Increase 8 Decrease 6 Increase 3
Popular vote 6,192,780 5,249,935 826,975
Percentage 45.38% 38.47% 6.06%
Swing Increase 13.60% Decrease 10.21% New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Krzysztof Bosak
(RN) 		Stanisław Tyszka Adrian Zandberg (Razem)
Party Confederation Kukiz'15 Left Together
Alliance EFDD/NI EFDD DiEM25/S&D
Last election 8.54%, 4 seats[bq] New party Did not exist[bs]
Seats before 2 1[br] 1[bt]

Notes

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  1. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  2. ^ Includes: 0% – True Europe Movement, 0% – Polexit-Coalition, 0% – Unity of Nation.
  3. ^ Includes: 0% – True Europe Movement, 0% – Polexit-Coalition, 0% – Unity of Nation.
  4. ^ Includes: 0.1% – Polexit-Coalition, 0.1% – True Europe Movement, 0.0% – Unity of Nation.
  5. ^ Includes: 0% – True Europe Movement, 0% – Polexit-Coalition, 0% – Unity of Nation.
  6. ^ Includes: 0.8% – True Europe Movement.
  7. ^ Includes: 1% – True Europe Movement.
  8. ^ Includes: 0.4% – True Europe Movement.
  9. ^ Includes: 1% – True Europe Movement.
  10. ^ Includes: 1.6% – True Europe Movement.
  11. ^ Includes: 0.2% – 11 November Movement, 0.0% – True Europe Movement.
  12. ^ Includes: 0.0% – 11 November Movement.
  13. ^ Includes: 1% – True Europe Movement, 1% – 11 November Movement.
  14. ^ Includes: 1.5% – True Europe Movement.
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Razem party polled separately.
  16. ^ Includes: 1% – True Europe Movement.
  17. ^ The poll includes a seat projection: PiS – 19, coalition of PO, .N, SLD and PSL – 19, Spring – 7, Kukiz'15 – 4, Liberty – 3.
  18. ^ Includes: 0.2% – Now!.
  19. ^ a b Includes: 0.2% – True Europe Movement (party of Tadeusz Rydzyk).
  20. ^ Includes: 32.1% – PO, 9.4% – SLD, 6.8% – PSL, 0.3% – The Greens.
  21. ^ Includes: 1.4% – National Movement.
  22. ^ Includes: 7.2% – Congress of the New Right.
  23. ^ a b c d The coalitions includes The Greens party.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l The coalition includes National Movement.
  25. ^ Includes: 0.4% – Now!.
  26. ^ The poll includes a seat projection: PiS – 22, coalition of PO, .N, PSL and Now! – 19, Spring – 4, coalition of SLD, Razem and The Greens – 4, Kukiz'15 – 3.[1]
  27. ^ The coalitions includes Now! party.
  28. ^ Includes: 1.0% – True Europe Movement (party of Tadeusz Rydzyk).
  29. ^ Includes: 1.1% – Now!.
  30. ^ The poll measures voting intention in case the True Europe Movement (party of Tadeusz Rydzyk) is running in the election.
  31. ^ The poll includes a seat projection: PiS – 25, coalition of PO and .N – 18, Spring – 5, Kukiz'15 – 4.[1]
  32. ^ Includes: 1.0% – Now!, 0.7% – True Europe Movement (party of Tadeusz Rydzyk), 0.7% – The Greens.
  33. ^ Includes: 2% – True Europe Movement (party of Tadeusz Rydzyk).
  34. ^ Includes: 7.2% – Congress of the New Right.
  35. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  36. ^ 21 in case of Brexit.
  37. ^ 3 in case of Brexit.
  38. ^ 24 in case of Brexit.
  39. ^ 24 in case of Brexit.
  40. ^ Includes: 19 – PO, 5 – SLD, 4 – PSL.
  41. ^ Includes: 4 – Congress of the New Right.
  42. ^ The coalitions includes Now! party.
  43. ^ Includes: 4 – Congress of the New Right.
  44. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  45. ^ Includes: 47.7% – PO, 7.7% – SLD, 3.2% – PSL, 0.6% – The Greens.
  46. ^ Includes: 1.2% – National Movement.
  47. ^ Includes: 6.5% – Congress of the New Right.
  48. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  49. ^ Includes: 0.3% – True Europe Movement.
  50. ^ Includes: 40.4% – PO, 7.5% – SLD, 2.5% – PSL, 1.0% – The Greens.
  51. ^ Includes: 1.6% – National Movement.
  52. ^ Includes: 6.5% – Congress of the New Right.
  53. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  54. ^ Includes: 0.4% – True Europe Movement.
  55. ^ Includes: 33.0% – PO, 12.8% – SLD, 10.5% – PSL.
  56. ^ Includes: 1.2% – National Movement.
  57. ^ Includes: 6.9% – Congress of the New Right.
  58. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  59. ^ Includes: 0.6% – True Europe Movement.
  60. ^ Includes: 25.4% – PO, 6.9% – SLD, 6.4% – PSL.
  61. ^ Includes: 1.3% – National Movement.
  62. ^ Includes: 7.9% – Congress of the New Right.
  63. ^ The coalition includes Labour Union and Social Justice Movement parties.
  64. ^ Includes: 38.1% – PO, 11.9% – SLD, 4.2% – PSL.
  65. ^ Includes: 1.3% – National Movement.
  66. ^ Includes: 7.2% – Congress of the New Right.
  67. ^ Joint result of Law and Justice, United Poland and Poland Together in the last EU election
  68. ^ Joint result of Civic Platform, Democratic Left Alliance - Labour Union, Polish People's Party and the Greens in the last EU election
  69. ^ Joint result of former Korwin-Mikke's party Congress of the New Right and National Movement in the last EU election
  70. ^ Marek Jurek, elected from the Law and Justice list, is now Kukiz'15 leading candidate in Greater Poland
  71. ^ Labour Union took part in the last EU election as a part of SLD-UP coalition
  72. ^ Labour Union's seat gained as SLD-UP

References

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  1. ^ a b PiS zdobędzie 22 euromandaty, liberalna koalicja – 19, partia Biedronia – 4, lewica – 4, Kukiz – 3 (Sondaż Oko.press), oko.press (22 December 2018)
  2. ^ Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Okręg wyborczy nr 1 w Gdańsku, pe2014.pkw.gov.pl (27 March 2019)
  3. ^ Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Okręg wyborczy nr 4 w Warszawie I, pe2014.pkw.gov.pl (27 March 2019)
  4. ^ Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Okręg wyborczy nr 7 w Poznaniu, pe2014.pkw.gov.pl (27 March 2019)
  5. ^ Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Okręg wyborczy nr 10 w Krakowie, pe2014.pkw.gov.pl (27 March 2019)
  6. ^ Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Okręg wyborczy nr 12 we Wrocławiu, pe2014.pkw.gov.pl (27 March 2019)
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