2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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 Government |
The 2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Tennessee voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.
Trump won the election in Tennessee with 60.7% of the vote. Clinton received 34.7% of the vote.[2] This is the first time since 1972 that either party has earned over 60% of the vote in Tennessee. Tennessee was one of eleven states won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but lost by Hillary Clinton.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]Hillary Clinton was challenged by Bernie Sanders, the only other major candidate remaining in the Democratic primaries. Clinton won the state, defeating Sanders by 33.6 points and earning 44 delegates while Sanders earned 23 delegates.
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
| Tennessee Democratic primary, March 1, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 245,930 | 66.07% | 44 | 7 | 51 |
| Bernie Sanders | 120,800 | 32.45% | 23 | 0 | 23 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 2,025 | 0.54% | |||
| Uncommitted | 3,467 | 0.93% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 372,222 | 100% | 67 | 8 | 75 |
| Source: [3] | |||||
Republican primary
[edit]Donald Trump won the primary with a plurality, carrying 38.9% of the vote and all but one county, awarding him 33 delegates.[4]
Texas Senator Ted Cruz, came second with 24.7% of the vote and 16 delegates. Florida Senator Marco Rubio came third with 21.2% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Williamson. All other candidates did not receive any delegates.[5]
- 20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%
- 30–40%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 333,180 | 38.94% | 33 | 0 | 33 |
| Ted Cruz | 211,471 | 24.71% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Marco Rubio | 181,274 | 21.18% | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Ben Carson | 64,951 | 7.59% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 45,301 | 5.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 9,551 | 1.12% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 2,415 | 0.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 2,350 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 1,849 | 0.22% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,256 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 715 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 710 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) | 267 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 253 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pataki (withdrawn) | 186 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 855,729 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]Voting history
[edit]Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996. In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won the state by a margin of more than twenty points due to the unpopularity of the Obama administration in the conservative state. Typically Democrats do very well in the urban regions of Memphis and Nashville, while Republicans dominate the rural and suburban areas. Tennessee is considered a safe Republican state. In 2016, it stayed that way, with Trump winning the state with 60.7% of the vote.
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[6] | Safe R | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[7] | Safe R | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[8] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[9] | Likely R | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[12] | Likely R | November 8, 2016 |
| NBC[13] | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
^Highest rating given
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 1,522,925 | 60.72% | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 870,695 | 34.72% | |
| Independent | Gary Johnson | 70,397 | 2.81% | |
| Independent | Jill Stein | 15,993 | 0.64% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) | 11,991 | 0.48% | |
| Independent | Mike Smith | 7,276 | 0.29% | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente | 4,075 | 0.16% | |
| Independent | Alyson Kennedy | 2,877 | 0.12% | |
| Write-in | 1,798 | 0.07% | ||
| Total votes | 2,508,027 | 100.00% | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Anderson | 19,212 | 64.30% | 9,013 | 30.16% | 1,656 | 5.54% | 10,199 | 34.14% | 29,881 |
| Bedford | 11,486 | 74.80% | 3,395 | 22.11% | 474 | 3.09% | 8,091 | 52.69% | 15,355 |
| Benton | 4,716 | 74.53% | 1,474 | 23.29% | 138 | 2.18% | 3,242 | 51.24% | 6,328 |
| Bledsoe | 3,622 | 77.66% | 897 | 19.23% | 145 | 3.11% | 2,725 | 58.43% | 4,664 |
| Blount | 37,443 | 71.72% | 12,100 | 23.18% | 2,665 | 5.10% | 25,343 | 48.54% | 52,208 |
| Bradley | 29,768 | 76.99% | 7,070 | 18.28% | 1,828 | 4.73% | 22,698 | 58.71% | 38,666 |
| Campbell | 9,870 | 78.76% | 2,248 | 17.94% | 414 | 3.30% | 7,622 | 60.82% | 12,532 |
| Cannon | 4,007 | 75.40% | 1,127 | 21.21% | 180 | 3.39% | 2,880 | 54.19% | 5,314 |
| Carroll | 7,756 | 74.69% | 2,327 | 22.41% | 301 | 2.90% | 5,429 | 52.28% | 10,384 |
| Carter | 16,898 | 80.15% | 3,453 | 16.38% | 733 | 3.47% | 13,445 | 63.77% | 21,084 |
| Cheatham | 11,297 | 70.94% | 3,878 | 24.35% | 749 | 4.71% | 7,419 | 46.59% | 15,924 |
| Chester | 5,081 | 78.09% | 1,243 | 19.10% | 183 | 2.81% | 3,838 | 58.99% | 6,507 |
| Claiborne | 8,602 | 80.09% | 1,832 | 17.06% | 306 | 2.85% | 6,770 | 63.03% | 10,740 |
| Clay | 2,141 | 73.32% | 707 | 24.21% | 72 | 2.47% | 1,434 | 49.11% | 2,920 |
| Cocke | 9,791 | 80.74% | 1,981 | 16.34% | 354 | 2.92% | 7,810 | 64.40% | 12,126 |
| Coffee | 14,417 | 72.19% | 4,743 | 23.75% | 811 | 4.06% | 9,674 | 48.44% | 19,971 |
| Crockett | 3,982 | 73.78% | 1,303 | 24.14% | 112 | 2.08% | 2,679 | 49.64% | 5,397 |
| Cumberland | 20,413 | 77.44% | 5,202 | 19.73% | 745 | 2.83% | 15,211 | 57.71% | 26,360 |
| Davidson | 84,550 | 33.95% | 148,864 | 59.77% | 15,654 | 6.28% | -64,314 | -25.82% | 249,068 |
| Decatur | 3,588 | 78.14% | 894 | 19.47% | 110 | 2.39% | 2,694 | 58.67% | 4,592 |
| DeKalb | 5,171 | 74.35% | 1,569 | 22.56% | 215 | 3.09% | 3,602 | 51.79% | 6,955 |
| Dickson | 13,233 | 70.77% | 4,722 | 25.25% | 744 | 3.98% | 8,511 | 45.52% | 18,699 |
| Dyer | 10,180 | 76.33% | 2,816 | 21.12% | 340 | 2.55% | 7,364 | 55.21% | 13,336 |
| Fayette | 13,055 | 67.31% | 5,874 | 30.29% | 465 | 2.40% | 7,181 | 37.02% | 19,394 |
| Fentress | 6,038 | 82.34% | 1,100 | 15.00% | 195 | 2.66% | 4,938 | 67.34% | 7,333 |
| Franklin | 11,532 | 70.30% | 4,374 | 26.66% | 498 | 3.04% | 7,158 | 43.64% | 16,404 |
| Gibson | 13,786 | 70.53% | 5,258 | 26.90% | 503 | 2.57% | 8,528 | 43.63% | 19,547 |
| Giles | 7,970 | 71.56% | 2,917 | 26.19% | 250 | 2.25% | 5,053 | 45.37% | 11,137 |
| Grainger | 6,626 | 82.74% | 1,154 | 14.41% | 228 | 2.85% | 5,472 | 68.33% | 8,008 |
| Greene | 18,562 | 78.71% | 4,216 | 17.88% | 805 | 3.41% | 14,346 | 60.83% | 23,583 |
| Grundy | 3,636 | 76.34% | 999 | 20.97% | 128 | 2.69% | 2,637 | 55.37% | 4,763 |
| Hamblen | 15,857 | 76.63% | 4,075 | 19.69% | 760 | 3.68% | 11,782 | 56.94% | 20,692 |
| Hamilton | 78,733 | 55.29% | 55,316 | 38.84% | 8,359 | 5.87% | 23,417 | 16.45% | 142,408 |
| Hancock | 1,843 | 82.61% | 322 | 14.43% | 66 | 2.96% | 1,521 | 68.18% | 2,231 |
| Hardeman | 4,919 | 53.05% | 4,185 | 45.13% | 169 | 1.82% | 734 | 7.92% | 9,273 |
| Hardin | 8,012 | 80.53% | 1,622 | 16.30% | 315 | 3.17% | 6,390 | 64.23% | 9,949 |
| Hawkins | 16,648 | 80.14% | 3,507 | 16.88% | 619 | 2.98% | 13,141 | 63.26% | 20,774 |
| Haywood | 3,013 | 44.09% | 3,711 | 54.30% | 110 | 1.61% | -698 | -10.21% | 6,834 |
| Henderson | 8,138 | 79.65% | 1,800 | 17.62% | 279 | 2.73% | 6,338 | 62.03% | 10,217 |
| Henry | 9,508 | 73.45% | 3,063 | 23.66% | 374 | 2.89% | 6,445 | 49.79% | 12,945 |
| Hickman | 5,695 | 72.89% | 1,824 | 23.35% | 294 | 3.76% | 3,871 | 49.54% | 7,813 |
| Houston | 2,182 | 68.88% | 866 | 27.34% | 120 | 3.78% | 1,316 | 41.54% | 3,168 |
| Humphreys | 4,930 | 68.92% | 1,967 | 27.50% | 256 | 3.58% | 2,963 | 41.42% | 7,153 |
| Jackson | 3,236 | 72.46% | 1,129 | 25.28% | 101 | 2.26% | 2,107 | 47.18% | 4,466 |
| Jefferson | 14,776 | 77.47% | 3,494 | 18.32% | 802 | 4.21% | 11,282 | 59.15% | 19,072 |
| Johnson | 5,410 | 82.23% | 988 | 15.02% | 181 | 2.75% | 4,422 | 67.21% | 6,579 |
| Knox | 105,767 | 58.53% | 62,878 | 34.80% | 12,052 | 6.67% | 42,889 | 23.73% | 180,697 |
| Lake | 1,357 | 68.88% | 577 | 29.29% | 36 | 1.83% | 780 | 39.59% | 1,970 |
| Lauderdale | 4,884 | 60.39% | 3,056 | 37.79% | 147 | 1.82% | 1,828 | 22.60% | 8,087 |
| Lawrence | 12,420 | 79.28% | 2,821 | 18.01% | 425 | 2.71% | 9,599 | 61.27% | 15,666 |
| Lewis | 3,585 | 77.56% | 890 | 19.26% | 147 | 3.18% | 2,695 | 58.30% | 4,622 |
| Lincoln | 10,398 | 77.90% | 2,554 | 19.13% | 396 | 2.97% | 7,844 | 58.77% | 13,348 |
| Loudon | 17,610 | 75.29% | 4,919 | 21.03% | 862 | 3.68% | 12,691 | 54.26% | 23,391 |
| Macon | 6,263 | 83.46% | 1,072 | 14.29% | 169 | 2.25% | 5,191 | 69.17% | 7,504 |
| Madison | 21,335 | 55.97% | 15,448 | 40.52% | 1,337 | 3.51% | 5,887 | 15.45% | 38,120 |
| Marion | 7,696 | 70.85% | 2,832 | 26.07% | 334 | 3.08% | 4,864 | 44.78% | 10,862 |
| Marshall | 8,184 | 71.44% | 2,852 | 24.90% | 419 | 3.66% | 5,332 | 46.54% | 11,455 |
| Maury | 23,799 | 67.29% | 10,038 | 28.38% | 1,532 | 4.33% | 13,761 | 38.91% | 35,369 |
| McMinn | 14,691 | 78.33% | 3,510 | 18.72% | 554 | 2.95% | 11,181 | 59.61% | 18,755 |
| McNairy | 7,841 | 78.11% | 1,848 | 18.41% | 349 | 3.48% | 5,993 | 59.70% | 10,038 |
| Meigs | 3,342 | 77.36% | 856 | 19.81% | 122 | 2.83% | 2,486 | 57.55% | 4,320 |
| Monroe | 13,374 | 78.24% | 3,186 | 18.64% | 533 | 3.12% | 10,188 | 59.60% | 17,093 |
| Montgomery | 32,341 | 56.13% | 21,699 | 37.66% | 3,580 | 6.21% | 10,642 | 18.47% | 57,620 |
| Moore | 2,325 | 79.46% | 496 | 16.95% | 105 | 3.59% | 1,829 | 62.51% | 2,926 |
| Morgan | 5,441 | 81.15% | 1,054 | 15.72% | 210 | 3.13% | 4,387 | 65.43% | 6,705 |
| Obion | 9,526 | 77.77% | 2,426 | 19.81% | 297 | 2.42% | 7,100 | 57.96% | 12,249 |
| Overton | 6,059 | 73.63% | 1,945 | 23.64% | 225 | 2.73% | 4,114 | 49.99% | 8,229 |
| Perry | 2,167 | 75.90% | 597 | 20.91% | 91 | 3.19% | 1,570 | 54.99% | 2,855 |
| Pickett | 2,021 | 77.28% | 536 | 20.50% | 58 | 2.22% | 1,485 | 56.78% | 2,615 |
| Polk | 5,097 | 78.17% | 1,252 | 19.20% | 171 | 2.63% | 3,845 | 58.97% | 6,520 |
| Putnam | 19,002 | 69.83% | 6,851 | 25.18% | 1,359 | 4.99% | 12,151 | 44.65% | 27,212 |
| Rhea | 8,660 | 78.29% | 1,942 | 17.56% | 460 | 4.15% | 6,718 | 60.73% | 11,062 |
| Roane | 15,880 | 73.28% | 4,837 | 22.32% | 952 | 4.40% | 11,043 | 50.96% | 21,669 |
| Robertson | 19,410 | 71.59% | 6,637 | 24.48% | 1,066 | 3.93% | 12,773 | 47.11% | 27,113 |
| Rutherford | 64,515 | 60.05% | 36,706 | 34.17% | 6,215 | 5.78% | 27,809 | 25.88% | 107,436 |
| Scott | 6,044 | 84.85% | 934 | 13.11% | 145 | 2.04% | 5,110 | 71.74% | 7,123 |
| Sequatchie | 4,441 | 77.99% | 1,053 | 18.49% | 200 | 3.52% | 3,388 | 59.50% | 5,694 |
| Sevier | 28,629 | 78.84% | 6,297 | 17.34% | 1,386 | 3.82% | 22,332 | 61.50% | 36,312 |
| Shelby | 116,344 | 34.48% | 208,992 | 61.95% | 12,047 | 3.57% | -92,648 | -27.47% | 337,383 |
| Smith | 5,494 | 73.88% | 1,689 | 22.71% | 253 | 3.41% | 3,805 | 51.17% | 7,436 |
| Stewart | 3,864 | 72.92% | 1,222 | 23.06% | 213 | 4.02% | 2,642 | 49.86% | 5,299 |
| Sullivan | 46,979 | 75.43% | 12,578 | 20.20% | 2,721 | 4.37% | 34,401 | 55.23% | 62,278 |
| Sumner | 50,129 | 70.11% | 18,161 | 25.40% | 3,215 | 4.49% | 31,968 | 44.71% | 71,505 |
| Tipton | 16,910 | 72.02% | 5,785 | 24.64% | 786 | 3.34% | 11,125 | 47.38% | 23,481 |
| Trousdale | 2,103 | 66.55% | 946 | 29.94% | 111 | 3.51% | 1,157 | 36.61% | 3,160 |
| Unicoi | 5,671 | 78.82% | 1,262 | 17.54% | 262 | 3.64% | 4,409 | 61.28% | 7,195 |
| Union | 5,053 | 80.89% | 1,012 | 16.20% | 182 | 2.91% | 4,041 | 64.69% | 6,247 |
| Van Buren | 1,820 | 75.24% | 539 | 22.28% | 60 | 2.48% | 1,281 | 52.96% | 2,419 |
| Warren | 9,540 | 70.09% | 3,535 | 25.97% | 537 | 3.94% | 6,005 | 44.12% | 13,612 |
| Washington | 34,252 | 68.85% | 13,024 | 26.18% | 2,474 | 4.97% | 21,228 | 42.67% | 49,750 |
| Wayne | 5,036 | 85.98% | 717 | 12.24% | 104 | 1.78% | 4,319 | 73.74% | 5,857 |
| Weakley | 9,008 | 73.93% | 2,772 | 22.75% | 404 | 3.32% | 6,236 | 51.18% | 12,184 |
| White | 7,671 | 78.08% | 1,845 | 18.78% | 309 | 3.14% | 5,826 | 59.30% | 9,825 |
| Williamson | 68,212 | 64.19% | 31,013 | 29.18% | 7,046 | 6.63% | 37,199 | 35.01% | 106,271 |
| Wilson | 39,406 | 69.46% | 14,385 | 25.36% | 2,943 | 5.18% | 25,021 | 44.10% | 56,734 |
| Totals | 1,522,925 | 60.72% | 870,695 | 34.72% | 114,407 | 4.56% | 652,230 | 26.00% | 2,508,027 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[15]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 76.45% | 19.61% | Phil Roe |
| 2nd | 64.71% | 29.53% | Jimmy Duncan |
| 3rd | 65.07% | 30.05% | Chuck Fleischmann |
| 4th | 68.19% | 27.27% | Scott DesJarlais |
| 5th | 37.87% | 56.06% | Jim Cooper |
| 6th | 72.34% | 23.58% | Diane Black |
| 7th | 67.05% | 28.03% | Marsha Blackburn |
| 8th | 66.06% | 30.43% | Stephen Fincher |
| David Kustoff | |||
| 9th | 20.03% | 76.93% | Steve Cohen |
Analysis
[edit]A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.
Winning Tennessee by 652,230 votes, Donald Trump achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by the 807,179-vote margin in Texas. Trump significantly outperformed previous Republican candidates in rural areas, particularly in Appalachia and the rural regions of Middle and West Tennessee. Notably, Trump flipped rural Hardeman County, winning it by 734 votes, marking the first time since 1988 that the county voted for a Republican in a presidential race since. This marked the first presidential election since 1972 in which a nominee garnered over 60% of Tennessee's vote.
See also
[edit]- First presidency of Donald Trump
- United States presidential elections in Tennessee
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Tennessee elections
References
[edit]- ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2016". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
- ^ "Tennessee Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 17, 2017. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
- ^ The Green Papers
- ^ "Tennessee Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 12, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Primary Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. Retrieved February 12, 2024.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on December 15, 2016. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "DRA 2020 TN 2016 CD results". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
External links
[edit]- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
- Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Tennessee
