2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2016, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2016 presidential election and the 2016 Senate elections, were also held on this date.
Election ratings
[edit]Latest published ratings for competitive seats
[edit]Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result |
Cook November 7, 2016[1] |
Rothenberg November 3, 2016[2] |
Sabato November 7, 2016[3] |
RCP October 31, 2016[4] |
Daily Kos November 7, 2016[5] |
Winner[6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large | R+12 | Don Young (R) | 51.0% R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Don Young (R) |
| Arizona 1 | R+4 | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) (retiring)[a] | 52.6% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tom O'Halleran (D) |
| Arizona 2 | R+3 | Martha McSally (R) | 50.0% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Martha McSally (R) |
| California 3 | D+3 | John Garamendi (D) | 52.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | John Garamendi (D) |
| California 7 | EVEN | Ami Bera (D) | 50.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Ami Bera (D) |
| California 10 | R+1 | Jeff Denham (R) | 56.2% R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | Jeff Denham (R) |
| California 16 | D+7 | Jim Costa (D) | 50.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Jim Costa (D) |
| California 21 | D+2 | David Valadao (R) | 57.8% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | David Valadao (R) |
| California 24 | D+4 | Lois Capps (D) (retiring) | 51.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Salud Carbajal (D) |
| California 25 | R+3 | Steve Knight (R) | 53.3% R | Tossup | Likely R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Steve Knight (R) |
| California 48 | R+7 | Dana Rohrabacher (R) | 64.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Dana Rohrabacher (R) |
| California 49 | R+4 | Darrell Issa (R) | 60.2% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Darrell Issa (R) |
| California 52 | D+2 | Scott Peters (D) | 51.6% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Scott Peters (D) |
| Colorado 3 | R+5 | Scott Tipton (R) | 58.0% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Scott Tipton (R) |
| Colorado 6 | D+1 | Mike Coffman (R) | 51.9% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Mike Coffman (R) |
| Florida 2 | R+18 | Gwen Graham (D) (retiring) | 50.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Neal Dunn (R) |
| Florida 7 | R+2 | John Mica (R) | 63.6% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Stephanie Murphy (D) |
| Florida 10 | D+9 | Daniel Webster (R) (switching seats)[b] | 61.5% R | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Val Demings (D) |
| Florida 13 | D+3 | David Jolly (R) | 75.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Charlie Crist (D) |
| Florida 18 | R+3 | Patrick Murphy (D) (retiring)[a] | 59.8% D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Brian Mast (R) |
| Florida 26 | EVEN | Carlos Curbelo (R) | 51.5% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Carlos Curbelo (R) |
| Florida 27 | R+1 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) | 100.0% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) |
| Illinois 10 | D+8 | Robert Dold (R) | 51.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Brad Schneider (D) |
| Illinois 12 | EVEN | Mike Bost (R) | 52.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Mike Bost (R) |
| Illinois 17 | D+7 | Cheri Bustos (D) | 55.5% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Cheri Bustos (D) |
| Indiana 2 | R+6 | Jackie Walorski (R) | 58.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Jackie Walorski (R) |
| Indiana 9 | R+9 | Todd Young (R) (retiring) [a] | 62.2% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Trey Hollingsworth (R) |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Rod Blum (R) | 51.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Rod Blum (R) |
| Iowa 2 | D+4 | Dave Loebsack (D) | 52.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | David Loebsack (D) |
| Iowa 3 | EVEN | David Young (R) | 52.8% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | David Young (R) |
| Kansas 3 | R+5 | Kevin Yoder (R) | 60.0% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Kevin Yoder (R) |
| Maine 2 | D+2 | Bruce Poliquin (R) | 47.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Bruce Poliquin (R) |
| Maryland 6 | D+4 | John K. Delaney (D) | 49.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | John K. Delaney (D) |
| Michigan 1 | R+5 | Dan Benishek (R) (retiring) | 52.1% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Jack Bergman (R) |
| Michigan 6 | R+1 | Fred Upton (R) | 55.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Fred Upton (R) |
| Michigan 7 | R+3 | Tim Walberg (R) | 53.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tim Walberg (R) |
| Michigan 8 | R+2 | Mike Bishop (R) | 54.6% R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Mike Bishop (R) |
| Minnesota 1 | R+1 | Tim Walz (D) | 54.3% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Tim Walz (D) |
| Minnesota 2 | R+2 | John Kline (R) (retiring) | 56.0% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Jason Lewis (R) |
| Minnesota 3 | R+2 | Erik Paulsen (R) | 62.2% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Erik Paulsen (R) |
| Minnesota 7 | R+6 | Collin Peterson (D) | 54.3% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Collin Peterson (D) |
| Minnesota 8 | D+1 | Rick Nolan (D) | 48.5% D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Rick Nolan (D) |
| Montana at-large | R+7 | Ryan Zinke (R) | 55.4% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Ryan Zinke (R) |
| Nebraska 2 | R+4 | Brad Ashford (D) | 49.0% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Don Bacon (R) |
| Nevada 3 | EVEN | Joe Heck (R) (retiring)[a] | 60.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Jacky Rosen (D) |
| Nevada 4 | D+4 | Cresent Hardy (R) | 48.5% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Ruben Kihuen (D) |
| New Hampshire 1 | R+1 | Frank Guinta (R) | 51.7% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Carol Shea Porter (D) |
| New Jersey 5 | R+4 | Scott Garrett (R) | 55.4% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Josh Gottheimer (D) |
| New York 1 | R+2 | Lee Zeldin (R) | 54.4% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | Lee Zeldin (R) |
| New York 3 | EVEN | Steve Israel (D) (retiring) | 54.8% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Thomas Suozzi (D) |
| New York 19 | D+1 | Chris Gibson (R) (retiring) | 64.5% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | John Faso (R) |
| New York 21 | EVEN | Elise Stefanik (R) | 55.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Elise Stefanik (R) |
| New York 22 | R+3 | Richard L. Hanna (R) (retiring) | 98.4% R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Claudia Tenney (R) |
| New York 23 | R+3 | Tom Reed (R) | 61.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Tom Reed (R) |
| New York 24 | D+5 | John Katko (R) | 59.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | John Katko (R) |
| New York 25 | D+7 | Louise Slaughter (D) | 50.2% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Louise Slaughter (D) |
| North Carolina 6 | R+10 | Mark Walker (R) | 58.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Mark Walker (R) |
| North Carolina 8 | R+8 | Richard Hudson (R) | 64.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Richard Hudson (R) |
| North Carolina 9 | R+8 | Robert Pittenger (R) | 93.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Robert Pittenger (R) |
| North Carolina 13 | R+5 | George Holding (R) (switching seats)[c] | 57.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Ted Budd (R) |
| Pennsylvania 6 | R+2 | Ryan Costello (R) | 56.3% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Ryan Costello (R) |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+1 | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) (retiring) | 61.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) |
| Pennsylvania 16 | R+4 | Joe Pitts (R) (retiring) | 57.7% R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lloyd Smucker (R) |
| Pennsylvania 17 | D+4 | Matt Cartwright (D) | 56.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Matt Cartwright (D) |
| Texas 10 | R+11 | Michael McCaul (R) | 62.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Michael McCaul (R) |
| Texas 14 | R+12 | Randy Weber (R) | 61.8% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Randy Weber (R) |
| Texas 23 | R+3 | Will Hurd (R) | 49.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Will Hurd (R) |
| Utah 4 | R+16 | Mia Love (R) | 50.9% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | Mia Love (R) |
| Virginia 4 | D+8 | Randy Forbes (R) (switching seats)[d] | 60.2% R | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Donald McEachin (D) |
| Virginia 5 | R+5 | Robert Hurt (R) (retiring) | 60.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Thomas Garrett Jr. (R) |
| Virginia 7 | R+8 | Dave Brat (R) | 60.8% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Dave Brat (R) |
| Virginia 10 | R+2 | Barbara Comstock (R) | 56.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Barbara Comstock (R) |
| Washington 3 | R+2 | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | 61.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
| Washington 8 | R+1 | Dave Reichert (R) | 60.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Dave Reichert (R) |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+2 | Reid Ribble (R) (retiring) | 65.0% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Mike Gallagher (R) |
| Overall | R - 228 D - 189 18 tossups |
R - 231 D - 194 10 tossups |
R - 234 D - 201 |
R - 225 D - 190 20 tossups |
R - 225 D - 190 20 tossups |
R - 241 D - 194 | |||
Generic ballot polls
[edit]The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2018 House of Representatives elections.
| Polling aggregates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Democratic | Republican | Lead |
| FiveThirtyEight[7] | Nov 8, 2016 | Until Nov 7, 2016 | 45.4% | 44.2% | +1.2% |
| RealClearPolitics[8] | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 1–7, 2016 | 46.0% | 45.4% | +0.6% |
| Average | 45.7% | 44.8% | +0.9% | ||
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on November 12, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Archived from the original on March 3, 2017. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control". The New York Times. November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ RealClearPolitics