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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
← 2016 November 6, 2018 2020 →
All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 5 1
Seats won 5 1
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 935,564 613,040
Percentage 59.59% 39.05%
Swing Decrease 11.11% Increase 9.77%
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

Overview

[edit]
Popular vote
Republican
 
 59.59%
Democratic
 
 39.05%
Other
 
 1.36%
House seats
Republican
 
 83.33%
Democratic
 
 16.67%

By district

[edit]

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky by district:[1]

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 172,167 68.59% 78,849 31.41% 0 0.00% 251,016 100.0% Republican hold
District 2 171,700 66.72% 79,964 31.07% 5,681 2.21% 257,345 100.0% Republican hold
District 3 101,930 36.57% 173,002 62.07% 3,788 1.36% 278,720 100.0% Democratic hold
District 4 162,946 62.24% 90,536 34.58% 8,330 3.18% 261,812 100.0% Republican hold
District 5 172,093 78.94% 45,890 21.05% 34 0.02% 218,017 100.0% Republican hold
District 6 154,468 51.00% 144,736 47.79% 3,684 1.22% 302,888 100.0% Republican hold
Total 935,304 59.58% 612,977 39.05% 21,517 1.37% 1,569,798 100.0%

District 1

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee James Comer Paul Walker
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 172,167 78,849
Percentage 68.6% 31.4%
County results
Comer:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

James Comer
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

James Comer
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 1st congressional district

Incumbent Republican James Comer, who had represented the district since 2016, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+23.

Republican primary

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Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Paul Walker, professor[2]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Alonzo Pennington, musician[3]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paul Walker 51,094 74.6
Democratic Alonzo Pennington 17,398 25.4
Total votes 68,492 100.0

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican James Comer (incumbent) 172,167 68.6
Democratic Paul Walker 78,849 31.4
Total votes 251,016 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Brett Guthrie Hank Linderman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 171,700 79,964
Percentage 66.7% 31.1%
County results
Guthrie:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Brett Guthrie
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Brett Guthrie
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 2nd congressional district

Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+19.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Hank Linderman, musician[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Brian Pedigo, teacher and farmer[5]
  • Rane Eir Olivia Sessions, veteran and former intern for William D. Ford[6]
  • Grant Short pilot, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[7]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hank Linderman 14,516 30.0
Democratic Brian Pedigo 13,866 28.7
Democratic Rane Eir Olivia Sessions 10,501 21.7
Democratic Grant Short 9,470 19.6
Total votes 48,353 100.0

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brett Guthrie (incumbent) 171,700 66.7
Democratic Hank Linderman 79,964 31.1
Independent Thomas Loecken 5,681 2.2
Total votes 257,345 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee John Yarmuth Vickie Yates Glisson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 173,002 101,930
Percentage 62.1% 36.1%
County result
Yarmuth:      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

John Yarmuth
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

John Yarmuth
Democratic

See also: Kentucky's 3rd congressional district

Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with %63 of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+6.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Vickie Yates Glisson, lawyer and former state health secretary[8]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Mike Craven, Ford worker
  • Rhonda Palazzo, realtor
Withdrawn
[edit]
  • Waymen Eddings

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Vickie Yates Glisson 11,239 49.1
Republican Mike Craven 6,163 26.9
Republican Rhonda Palazzo 5,511 24.0
Total votes 22,913 100.0

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Yarmuth (incumbent) 173,002 62.1
Republican Vickie Yates Glisson 101,930 36.6
Libertarian Gregory Boles 3,788 1.4
Total votes 278,720 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Thomas Massie Seth Hall
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 162,946 90,536
Percentage 62.2% 34.6%
County results
Massie:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Thomas Massie
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Thomas Massie
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 4th congressional district

Incumbent Republican Thomas Massie, who had represented the district since 2012, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+18.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Seth Hall, health insurance worker
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Christina Lord[9]
  • Patti Piatt, business executive[10]

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Seth Hall 17,859 40.8
Democratic Patti Piatt 16,441 37.5
Democratic Christina Lord 9,509 21.7
Total votes 43,809 100.0

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 4th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thomas Massie (incumbent) 162,946 62.2
Democratic Seth Hall 90,536 34.6
Independent Mike Moffett 8,318 2.2
Independent David Goodwin (write-in) 12 0.0
Total votes 261,812 100.0
Republican hold

District 5

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Hal Rogers Kenneth Stepp
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 172,093 45,890
Percentage 78.9% 21.0%
County results
Rogers:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Hal Rogers
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Hal Rogers
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 5th congressional district

Incumbent Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the district since 1981, ran for re-election. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+31.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Gerardo Serrano

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Hal Rogers (incumbent) 75,405 84.2
Republican Gerardo Serrano 14,177 15.8
Total votes 89,582 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Kenneth Stepp, attorney
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Scott Sykes

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kenneth Stepp 33,584 58.7
Democratic Scott Sykes 23,637 41.3
Total votes 57,221 100.0

General election

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 5th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Hal Rogers (incumbent) 172,093 78.9
Democratic Kenneth Stepp 45,890 21.0
Independent Bill Ray (write-in) 34 0.1
Total votes 218,017 100.0

District 6

[edit]
2018 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Andy Barr Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 154,468 144,736
Percentage 51.0% 47.8%
County results
Barr:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
McGrath:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Andy Barr
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Andy Barr
Republican

See also: Kentucky's 6th congressional district

Incumbent Republican Andy Barr, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Chuck Eddy

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Barr (incumbent) 40,514 83.8
Republican Chuck Eddy 7,858 16.2
Total votes 48,372 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Kentucky's 6th congressional district on its initial list of Republican-held seats considered targets in 2018.[16][17] McGrath's campaign announcement video, entitled "Told Me" where she spoke of her navy service (being the first female Marine to fly an McDonnell Douglas F/F-18 in combat), attracted much national attention.[18][19][20]

The DCCC opted to support Jim Gray in the primary.[21][22]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jim Gray

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Amy McGrath

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Reggie Thomas

Individuals

  • Nancy Jo Kemper, former executive director of the Kentucky Council of Churches and nominee for this seat in 2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jim
Gray 		Amy
McGrath 		Reggie
Thomas 		Other Undecided
Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)[30] April 17–19, 2018 400 ±5.0% 35% 42% 6% 3% 14%
Mellman Group (D-Gray)[31] March 3–6, 2018 400 ±4.9% 52% 19% 6% — 23%

Results

[edit]
County results
Map legend
  •   McGrath—60–70%
  •   McGrath—50–60%
  •   McGrath—40–50%
  •   Gray—50–60%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 48,859 48.7
Democratic Jim Gray 40,684 40.5
Democratic Reggie Thomas 7,226 7.2
Democratic Geoff Young 1,574 1.6
Democratic Daniel Kemph 1,240 1.2
Democratic Theodore Green 835 0.8
Total votes 100,418 100.0

General election

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Andy Barr (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Amy McGrath (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Andy
Barr (R) 		Amy
McGrath (D) 		Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College[34] November 1–4, 2018 438 ± 4.9% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[35] October 6–8, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 48% 46% – –
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[36] September 30 – October 2, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 44% 51% – –
Pulse Opinion Research[37] September 12–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[38] September 6–8, 2018 506 ± 4.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[39] September 4–6, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 49% 45% – 6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[40] July 7–10, 2018 461 ± 4.6% 43% 50% – 7%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)[39] June 6–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 38% 51% – 11%
DCCC (D)[41] April 30–May 2, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 37% 52% – 8%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)[42] February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 5.0% 48% 44% – –
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Andy
Barr (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[43] February 12–13, 2018 662 ± 3.8% 42% 44% – 14%

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[44] Tossup November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[45] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] Lean R November 5, 2018
RCP[47] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[48] Tossup November 5, 2018
538[49] Tossup November 7, 2018

Results

[edit]
Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Barr (incumbent) 154,468 51.0
Democratic Amy McGrath 144,736 47.8
Libertarian Frank Harris 2,150 0.7
Independent Rikka Wallin 1,011 0.3
Independent James Germalic 523 0.2
Total votes 302,890 100.0
Republican hold

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. ^ reports, New Era staff. "Murray man to run for congress, challenge Comer". Kentucky New Era. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  3. ^ "Can Alonzo Pennington Thumbpick His Way into Congress?". LA Progressive. March 10, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  4. ^ "Hank Linderman running for Congress". TRISTATEHOMEPAGE. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  5. ^ "Danville hosts first public forum for Democratic congressional candidates | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 22, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  6. ^ By, WES SWIETEK. "Third Democrat files to challenge Guthrie". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  7. ^ "Four good Democratic candidates for Kentucky's Second District | The Advocate-Messenger". www.amnews.com. February 24, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  8. ^ "Kentucky Health Official Running for Congress | NewsRadio 840 WHAS". NewsRadio 840 WHAS. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  9. ^ "Here is the list of candidates for 4th Congressional District and KY House, Senate, from the region | NKyTribune". www.nkytribune.com. January 31, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  10. ^ "Massie Challenger Looks to Paint a Red District Blue". CityBeat Cincinnati. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  11. ^ "McGrath will launch first campaign commercial during UK basketball game". Spectrum News. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  12. ^ Arroyo, Emilie. "Lexington mayor Jim Gray files to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  13. ^ "Theodore David Green". Archived from the original on April 14, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  14. ^ Staff, WKYT News. "State Senator Reggie Thomas to run for Congress". Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  15. ^ "Geoff Young continues suit against Kentucky Democratic Party, even as he seeks its nomination | The State Journal". www.state-journal.com. Retrieved April 14, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  16. ^ Cheney, Kyle (January 30, 2017). "Amid Democratic doldrums, DCCC identifies 2018 targets". Politico. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  17. ^ Sena, Dan (January 30, 2017). "House Democrats Playing Offense" (PDF). Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  18. ^ Kurtzleben, Danielle (August 3, 2017). "Female Retired Marine With Viral Campaign Ad Hopes To Bridge Gap In Democratic Party". NPR.
  19. ^ Desrochers, Daniel (June 19, 2017). "His blog inflamed Kentucky politics a decade ago. Now he's back". Lexington Herald-Leader.
  20. ^ Puckett, Jeffrey Lee (August 3, 2017). "Kentucky combat veteran Amy McGrath is going viral with a video announcing Congressional run". The Courier-Journal.
  21. ^ Murphy, Tim (May 22, 2018). "As a kid, she petitioned Congress for the right to fly fighter planes. Now she's gunning for a seat of her own". Mother Jones.
  22. ^ Tackett, Michael (January 29, 2018). "From Annapolis to Congress? These Three Women Know Tough Missions". The New York Times.
  23. ^ "United Steelworkers Endorse Jim Gray for Congress". jimgraycongress.co. Jim Gray for Congress. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on May 24, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  24. ^ Elliot Imse (January 23, 2018). "23 more LGBTQ champions for equality endorsed by Victory Fund". victoryfund.org/. Victory Fund PAC. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  25. ^ Herald-Leader editorial board (May 13, 2018). "Jim Gray for 6th District Democrats". kentucky.com. Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  26. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (May 21, 2018). "Democratic primary in Kentucky pits openly gay mayor against female fighter pilot". CNN.
  27. ^ a b Roarty, Alex (August 9, 2017). "Rising Dem star Moulton grants seal of approval to three House candidates". The News & Observer.
  28. ^ a b "VoteVets PAC Endorses Amy McGrath for Congress". VoteVets.org. Archived from the original on July 8, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  29. ^ a b "Our Candidates: Amy McGrath KY-6 (D)". With Honor. Archived from the original on November 14, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  30. ^ Garin Hart Yang (D-McGrath)
  31. ^ Mellman Group (D-Gray)
  32. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Heading to the Great State of Kentucky - Big Rally for Congressman Andy Barr - Fantastic guy, need his vote for MAGA! Strong on Crime, Tax Cuts, Military, Vets & 2nd A. His opponent will NEVER vote for us, only for Pelosi. Andy has my Strongest Endorsement!!! See you in Kentucky". Twitter.
  33. ^ "Red to Blue". dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  34. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  35. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  36. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath) Archived October 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  37. ^ Pulse Opinion Research
  38. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  39. ^ a b Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R-CLF)
  40. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  41. ^ DCCC (D)
  42. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D-McGrath)
  43. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  44. ^ "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  45. ^ "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  46. ^ "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  47. ^ "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  48. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  49. ^ Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
[edit]
Official campaign websites
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