Next Andalusian regional election
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All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Andalusian regional election will be held no later than Tuesday, 30 June 2026, to elect the 13th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]
The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other).[1][4]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency is entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| 18 | Seville |
| 17 | Málaga |
| 15 | Cádiz |
| 13 | Granada |
| 12 | Almería, Córdoba |
| 11 | Huelva, Jaén |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 19 June 2022, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 19 June 2026. The election decree must be published in the BOJA no later than 26 May 2026, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest (theoretical) possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 19 July 2026. However, due to the summer temporary ban on elections, the latest real date for an election to be held is Tuesday, 30 June 2026.[1][4][6]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][7]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.[8]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 58 | 58 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE–A | 30 | 30 | ||
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Andalusia | Vox | 14 | 14 | ||
| For Andalusia Parliamentary Group | Podemos | 3 | 5 | ||
| IULV–CA | 1 | ||||
| SMR | 1 | ||||
| Mixed Group | Adelante | 2 | 2 | ||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
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|
Juanma Moreno | Conservatism Christian democracy |
43.13% | 58 | 
|
||
| PSOE–A | List |
.jpg)
|
Juan Espadas | Social democracy | 24.09% | 30 | 
|
||
| Vox | List
|
.jpg)
|
Manuel Gavira | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
13.46% | 14 |
|
[9] | |
| PorA | List
|
_(cropped).jpg)
|
Inmaculada Nieto | Left-wing populism Green politics |
7.68% | 5 |
|
||
| Adelante Andalucía |
List
|
|
José Ignacio García | Andalusian nationalism Left-wing populism Anti-capitalism |
4.58% | 2 |
|
[10] [11] | |
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are also displayed below (or in place of) the voting estimates in a smaller font; 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENTRA/CEA[p 1] | 16–30 Sep 2024 | 3,600 | 59.9 | 41.8 56/58 |
27.1 30/32 |
11.1 12/13 |
8.6 6/7 |
4.3 1/2 |
– | – | [a] | [a] | 2.7 0 |
14.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 2] | 18 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 3,600 | 57.1 | 41.6 57/59 |
23.5 30/31 |
12.0 12/13 |
10.2 7/8 |
3.9 0/1 |
1.2 0 |
– | [a] | [a] | 2.4 0 |
18.1 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 43.6 | 37.9 (48) |
32.2 (40) |
10.9 (12) |
[b] | – | 0.7 (0) |
– | 2.8 (0) |
5.1 (4) |
6.2 (5) |
5.7 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 3] | 22 Mar–9 Apr 2024 | 3,632 | 52.6 | 46.1 58/61 |
21.2 24/27 |
13.8 14/17 |
8.6 7/8 |
3.3 0/1 |
2.0 0 |
– | [a] | [a] | – | 24.9 |
| Sigma Dos/OKDiario[p 4] | 28 Feb 2024 | ? | ? | 46.4 59 |
24.5 29 |
10.2 10 |
10.5 9 |
5.1 2 |
– | – | [a] | [a] | – | 21.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 5] | 12–22 Dec 2023 | 3,600 | 55.0 | 46.2 60/62 |
21.0 25/27 |
12.7 11/12 |
11.9 10 |
3.8 0/1 |
1.5 0 |
– | [a] | [a] | – | 25.2 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 6] | 11–21 Sep 2023 | 3,600 | 59.8 | 41.4 56/58 |
24.7 30/32 |
11.7 9/10 |
12.6 10/12 |
4.8 0/2 |
1.3 0 |
– | [a] | [a] | – | 16.7 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 66.6 | 36.4 (45) |
33.5 (38) |
15.3 (16) |
[b] | 0.2 (0) |
– | 0.2 (0) |
[b] | 12.0 (10) |
– | 2.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 7] | 12–23 Jun 2023 | 3,600 | 58.9 | 44.6 58/59 |
24.1 30/31 |
12.5 12/13 |
8.5 5/6 |
5.3 2 |
1.6 0 |
– | [a] | – | – | 20.5 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 8] | 7–21 Mar 2023 | 3,600 | 56.7 | 42.2 56/57 |
24.2 30/31 |
13.4 12/13 |
8.5 8/9 |
3.3 1 |
4.2 0 |
– | [a] | – | – | 18.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9] | 1 Jan–13 Feb 2023 | 854 | ? | 46.0 60 |
23.4 28 |
11.2 13 |
8.0 6 |
4.7 2 |
3.0 0 |
0.5 0 |
[a] | – | – | 22.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 10] | 21 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 3,600 | 58.0 | 42.3 56/58 |
19.4 22/23 |
12.8 13/14 |
11.9 12/13 |
5.4 3/4 |
3.1 0 |
– | [a] | – | – | 22.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 11] | 13–26 Sep 2022 | 3,600 | 53.2 | 45.5 58/60 |
21.1 27/28 |
11.5 10/11 |
11.4 10/11 |
4.9 1/2 |
2.3 0 |
– | [a] | – | – | 24.4 |
| 2022 regional election | 19 Jun 2022 | — | 55.9 | 43.1 58 |
24.1 30 |
13.5 14 |
7.7 5 |
4.6 2 |
3.3 0 |
0.5 0 |
[a] | – | – | 19.0 |
Voting preferences
[edit]The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SALF | 
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENTRA/CEA[p 1] | 16–30 Sep 2024 | 3,600 | 32.3 | 21.0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | [a] | 1.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 2] | 18 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 3,600 | 31.6 | 20.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | [a] | 2.5 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 3] | 22 Mar–9 Apr 2024 | 3,632 | 29.7 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | [a] | – | 22.7 | 10.0 | 16.3 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 5] | 12–22 Dec 2023 | 3,600 | 43.3 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | [a] | – | 9.1 | 6.3 | 28.9 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 6] | 11–21 Sep 2023 | 3,600 | 35.9 | 19.5 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | [a] | – | 6.5 | 6.5 | 16.4 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 24.8 | 22.8 | 10.4 | [b] | 0.1 | – | 8.1 | – | — | 31.0 | 2.0 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 7] | 12–23 Jun 2023 | 3,600 | 37.9 | 20.8 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | – | – | 9.1 | 4.5 | 17.1 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 8] | 7–21 Mar 2023 | 3,600 | 32.5 | 22.1 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | – | – | 4.0 | 9.5 | 10.4 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 10] | 21 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 3,600 | 32.8 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | – | – | 6.7 | 8.4 | 20.2 |
| CENTRA/CEA[p 11] | 13–26 Sep 2022 | 3,600 | 36.6 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | – | – | 11.2 | 6.9 | 21.7 |
| 2022 regional election | 19 Jun 2022 | — | 24.9 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | – | – | — | 41.6 | 11.0 |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de septiembre de 2024". CEA (in Spanish). 21 October 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de junio de 2024". CEA (in Spanish). 22 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de marzo de 2024". CEA (in Spanish). 29 April 2024.
- ^ "El PP sigue reforzando su mayoría absoluta en Andalucía a costa de un PSOE cuesta abajo y sin frenos". OKDiario (in Spanish). 28 February 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de diciembre 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 15 January 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de septiembre 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 2 October 2023.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de junio 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 3 July 2023.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de marzo 2023". CEA (in Spanish). 10 April 2023.
- ^ "EP Andalucía (15F): Aumenta la distancia entre populares y socialistas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 February 2023.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de diciembre 2022". CEA (in Spanish). 19 December 2022.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Andaluz de septiembre 2022". CEA (in Spanish). 24 October 2022.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía (Organic Law 2) (in Spanish). 19 March 2007. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
- ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
- ^ a b c Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 1) (in Spanish). 2 January 1986. Retrieved 30 January 2020. Archived 10 September 2020 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
- ^ Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Law 6) (in Spanish). 24 October 2006. Retrieved 17 September 2017. Archived 17 September 2017 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Parliamentary Groups". Parliament of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 June 2022.
- ^ "Manuel Gavira sustituye a Olona como portavoz de Vox en Andalucía". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 10 August 2022. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
- ^ "Teresa Rodríguez deja su escaño y vuelve a su plaza de profesora de instituto". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 19 December 2022. Retrieved 19 December 2022.
- ^ "José Ignacio García releva a Teresa Rodríguez como portavoz de Adelante Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 17 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
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