Next Murcian regional election
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The next Murcian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 12th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally.[2]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 23 May 2027.[1][2][3]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.[4]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 21 | 21 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 13 | 13 | ||
| Vox Parliamentary Group | Vox | 9 | 9 | ||
| Mixed Group | Podemos | 2 | 2 | ||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][3]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
.jpg)
|
Fernando López Miras | Conservatism Christian democracy |
42.79% | 21 | 
|
||
| PSOE | List |
.jpg)
|
José Vélez | Social democracy | 25.62% | 13 | 
|
||
| Vox | List
|
.jpg)
|
José Ángel Antelo | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
17.71% | 9 |
|
||
| Podemos– IU–AV |
List
|
.jpg)
|
María Marín | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
4.69% | 2 |
|
||
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
 
|
|
|
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1] | 28 Nov–28 Dec 2024 | 1,310 | ? | 42.1 21 |
31.3 16 |
13.8 7 |
2.1 0 |
2.2 0 |
3.3 1 |
– | 10.8 |
| OBEDE/UCAM[p 2] | 15–29 Nov 2024 | 800 | 60.2 | 46.3 23 |
23.3 12 |
19.6 10 |
– | – | – | – | 23.0 |
| CEMOP[p 3] | 23 Sep–4 Oct 2024 | 820 | 62.4 | 44.1 22 |
24.9 12 |
18.8 9 |
5.1 2 |
– | – | – | 19.2 |
| SyM Consulting[p 4] | 15–19 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 61.4 | 45.4 22 |
25.8 12/13 |
19.5 9 |
4.0 1/2 |
2.6 0 |
– | – | 19.6 |
| Sigma Dos/La 7[p 5][p 6] | 2–11 Sep 2024 | 1,004 | ? | 46.8 22/23 |
26.6 12/13 |
16.3 7/8 |
4.3 1/2 |
– | – | 3.1 0/1 |
20.2 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 7] | 15–16 Jul 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 46.6 23 |
27.7 14 |
14.2 7 |
3.4 1 |
– | – | – | 18.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 8] | 13–16 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 64.2 | 47.0 24 |
23.8 12 |
15.9 8 |
3.1 1 |
– | – | – | 23.2 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 46.8 | 42.9 (21) |
25.1 (12) |
15.9 (8) |
2.4 (0) |
– | 3.3 (1) |
6.6 (3) |
17.8 |
| CEMOP[p 9] | 20–30 May 2024 | 820 | 63.4 | 46.1 22 |
26.9 13 |
17.9 8 |
4.7 2 |
– | – | – | 19.2 |
| CEMOP[p 10] | 5–22 Mar 2024 | 818 | 62.7 | 47.7 23 |
24.3 12 |
16.7 8 |
5.4 2 |
– | – | – | 23.4 |
| CEMOP[p 11] | 11–22 Jan 2024 | 817 | 63.8 | 41.8 21 |
24.8 12 |
20.4 10 |
5.1 2 |
– | – | – | 17.0 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 70.8 | 41.2 (19) |
25.3 (12) |
21.8 (10) |
[a] | – | 9.5 (4) |
– | 15.9 |
| CEMOP[p 12] | 3–13 Jul 2023 | 1,200 | 68 | 44.3 22 |
25.3 12/13 |
17.5 8/9 |
5.7 2 |
– | – | – | 19.0 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 63.2 | 42.8 21 |
25.6 13 |
17.7 9 |
4.7 2 |
3.0 0 |
– | – | 17.2 |
Voting preferences
[edit]The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEMOP[p 3] | 23 Sep–4 Oct 2024 | 820 | 24.5 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 3.0 | – | 23.5 | 14.0 | 9.8 |
| CEMOP[p 9] | 20–30 May 2024 | 820 | 32.6 | 16.7 | 14.1 | 4.6 | – | 19.0 | 9.3 | 15.9 |
| CEMOP[p 10] | 5–22 Mar 2024 | 818 | 28.9 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | – | 24.9 | 16.7 | 17.2 |
| CEMOP[p 11] | 11–22 Jan 2024 | 817 | 28.8 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 2.7 | – | 21.8 | 13.7 | 15.3 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 28.9 | 17.7 | 15.3 | [a] | 6.7 | — | 29.2 | 10.9 |
| CEMOP[p 12] | 3–13 Jul 2023 | 1,200 | 35.0 | 20.7 | 17.8 | 5.3 | – | 10.6 | 5.4 | 14.3 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 27.2 | 16.3 | 11.3 | 3.0 | – | — | 34.3 | 10.9 |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "ElectoPanel R. Murcia (30D): el PP seguiría dependiendo de Vox". Electomanía. 30 December 2024.
- ^ "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia: diciembre de 2024". UCAM. 4 December 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Otoño 2024" (PDF). CEMOP. 24 October 2024.
- ^ "Estimación Octubre 2024. Región de Murcia. Elecciones Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting. 21 October 2024.
- ^ "El PP se dispara y se acerca más a la mayoría absoluta". La 7. 23 September 2024.
- ^ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Encuesta Sigma Dos 23/09/2024: PP 46,8% (22/23), PSOE 26,6% (12/13), VOX 16,3% (7/8), PODEMOS-IU-AV 4,3% (1/2), SALF 3,1% (0/1)". Electográfica. 23 September 2024.
- ^ "La ruptura de Vox catapulta al PP a la mayoría absoluta en la Región de Murcia". OKDiario. 17 July 2024.
- ^ "El PP lograría mayoría absoluta si hay repetición electoral en Murcia tras la ruptura con Vox". La Razón. 22 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Verano 2024. En apoyo de la infancia" (PDF). CEMOP. 20 June 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Primavera 2024. Agricultura, Mar Menor y agua" (PDF). CEMOP. 18 April 2024.
- ^ a b "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Invierno 2023/24 – 100 días de gobierno" (PDF). CEMOP. 18 January 2024.
- ^ a b "Elecciones Generales 2023. Preelectoral" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 17 July 2023.
- Other
- ^ a b c Ley Orgánica 4/1982, de 9 de junio, de Estatuto de Autonomía para la Región de Murcia (Organic Law 4) (in Spanish). 9 June 1982. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 2/1987, de 24 de febrero, Electoral de la Región de Murcia (Law 2) (in Spanish). 24 February 1987. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
- ^ "Diputadas y Diputados regionales". www.asambleamurcia.es (in Spanish). Regional Assembly of Murcia. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
