2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
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Turnout | 69.9% 15.3 pp | ||||||||||||||||
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Moreno: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno.[1][2] Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.[3]
This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). Brown's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the senate majority in 2024.[4]
Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election, receiving around 2.6% more of the vote, it was still not enough to win. Moreno defeated Brown by 3.6 percentage points, which was a slightly larger margin than expected.
Moreno's campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.2% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2024 elections.
The victory gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected Vice President of the United States, Moreno will become Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.[a]
Background
[edit]After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points.
Republican JD Vance, now the 2024 Republican vice presidential nominee, defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by slightly over 6 points.[5][6]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won reelection in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate four times, the other being John Glenn[7][8][9][10] Brown led most polls for most of the year.[11]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)[1]
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. senators
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[12]
Political parties
Organizations
- Bend the Arc[14]
- Council for a Livable World[15]
- End Citizens United[16]
- Feminist Majority PAC[17]
- Human Rights Campaign[18]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[19]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[20]
- J Street PAC[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[23]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection Action Fund[25]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[26]
- Sierra Club[27]
- Swing Left[28]
Labor unions
- National Education Association[29]
- North Shore AFL-CIO[30]
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sherrod Brown (D) | $27,838,244 | $14,594,991 | $14,614,497 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[31] |
Polling
[edit]Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown |
Shontel Brown |
Tim Ryan |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University[32] | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV)[c] | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
Ohio Northern University[33] | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | 535,305 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 535,305 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022[35]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022[36]
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[37]
Failed to qualify
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)[40][41]
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)[42]
- Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022[43]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive[44] (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)[45][46]
Debates
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | |||||
1 | Jan. 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey |
FOX 8[47] | P | P | P |
2 | Feb. 19, 2024 | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer | Spectrum News[48] | P | P | P |
3 | Mar. 6, 2024 | WLWT | Sheree Paolello | YouTube | P | P | P |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. senators
- Rob Portman, Ohio (2011–2023)[49]
Governors
- Mike DeWine, Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[50]
State representatives
- Gayle Manning, HD-52 (2019–present)[51]
Local officials
- Greg Lashutka, former mayor of Columbus (1992–2000)[52]
Individuals
- Dee Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[53]
- Jimmy Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[53]
Newspapers
- The Plain Dealer (Republican primary only)[54]
U.S. representatives
- Mike Turner, OH-10 (2003–present)[55]
State representatives
- Mike Loychik, HD-65 (2021–present)[56]
- Melanie Miller, HD-67 (2023–present)[57]
- Josh Williams, HD-41 (2023–present)[56]
Political parties
- Scioto County Republican Party[58]
Organizations
- Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)[59]
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[60]
U.S. ambassadors
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[61]
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[62]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[63]
- Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)[64]
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[65]
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[66]
- Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)[67]
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[68]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[68]
- Marco Rubio, Florida (2011–present)[69]
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[58]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[70]
- JD Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[71]
U.S. representatives
- Warren Davidson, OH-08 (2016–present)[41]
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House (1995−1999) from GA-06 (1979−1999)[72]
- Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)[67]
- Max Miller, OH-07 (2023–present) (candidate's son-in-law)[63]
- Lee Zeldin, NY-01 (2015–2023)[73]
Governors
- Kristi Noem, South Dakota (2019–present)[74]
Statewide officials
- Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State (1999–2007)[75]
- Dave Yost, Ohio Attorney General (2019–present)[76]
Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[77]
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist[42]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor[78]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024[46]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and executive vice president of The Trump Organization[79]
Political parties
- Brown County Republican Party[80]
- Clermont County Republican Party[81]
- Cuyahoga County Republican Party[58]
- Greene County Republican Party[80]
- Preble County Republican Party[80]
- Summit County Republican Party[80]
- Warren County Republican Party[80]
Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Matt Dolan (R) | $11,425,814[d] | $9,089,493 | $2,383,077 |
Bernie Moreno (R) | $9,735,460[e] | $7,338,751 | $2,396,709 |
Frank LaRose (R) | $2,217,016[f] | $1,625,972 | $591,043 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[31] |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Matt Dolan |
Frank LaRose |
Bernie Moreno |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[89] | March 17–18, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 16% | 44% | – | |
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University[90] |
March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 19% | 29% | – | 21% |
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024 | <1,298 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 27% | 34% | – | |
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 18% | 16% | 22% | – | 44% |
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024 | 443 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 32% |
SurveyUSA[94][B] | February 27 – March 3, 2024 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 21% | 29% | – | 23% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[95][C] | February 25–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 21% | 31% | – | 27% |
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[97][D] | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% |
SurveyUSA[98][B] | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1%[g] | 35% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[99][C] | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% |
co/efficient (R)[100][C] | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV[101] | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32%[h] | 25% |
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0%[i] | 43% |
Ohio Northern University[103] | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV)[j] | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% |
Ohio Northern University[104] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% |
Suffolk/USA Today[105] | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% |
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% |
Causeway Solutions (R)[107][E] | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bernie Moreno | 557,626 | 50.48% | |
Republican | Matt Dolan | 363,013 | 32.86% | |
Republican | Frank LaRose | 184,111 | 16.67% | |
Total votes | 1,104,750 | 100.0% |
Libertarian Party
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018[108]
Write-in candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Stephen Faris, electrical engineer[109]
- David Allen Pastorius[109]
- Nathan Russell[109]
- Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate[109][110]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[111] | Tossup | September 25, 2024 |
Inside Elections[112] | Tossup | September 26, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[114] | Tossup | September 27, 2024 |
Elections Daily[115] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
CNalysis[116] | Tilt D | November 4, 2024 |
RealClearPolitics[117] | Tossup | September 28, 2024 |
Split Ticket[118] | Tossup | October 23, 2024 |
538[119] | Tossup | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Governors
- Andy Beshear, Kentucky (2019–present)[120]
- Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan (2019–present)[121]
- Bob Taft, Ohio (1999–2007) (Republican)[122]
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[123]
Organizations
Labor unions
Governors
- Mike DeWine, Ohio (2019–present)[131]
Federal officials
- John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019) and former Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[132]
U.S. Senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[133]
Statewide officials
- Keith Faber, Ohio State Auditor (2019–present)[134]
- Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[134]
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[134]
- Robert Sprague, Ohio State Treasurer (2019–present)[134]
Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sherrod Brown (D) | $91,399,138 | $88,358,633 | $4,411,749 |
Bernie Moreno (R) | $24,237,971[k] | $21,447,672 | $2,636,429 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[31] |
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Bernie Moreno (R) |
Undecided [l] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight[137] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.8% | 5.1% | Moreno +0.7 |
RealClearPolitics[138] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.3% | 48.0% | 5.7% | Moreno +1.7% |
270toWin[139] | October 10 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.0% | 5.7% | Brown +0.3 |
TheHill/DDHQ[140] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 4.3% | Moreno +2.1 |
Average | 46.9% | 47.9% | 5.2% | Moreno +1.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Bernie Moreno (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[141] | November 2–4, 2024 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
AtlasIntel[142] | November 1–4, 2024 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 3%[m] | 3% |
Emerson College[143][F] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 48% | – | 6% |
48%[n] | 52% | – | – | ||||
Morning Consult[144] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
Miami University[145] | October 28–30, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 3%[o] | 2% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[146] | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
ActiVote[147] | October 14–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
J.L. Partners (R)[148] | October 22–24, 2024 | 997 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 52% | 3% | – |
University of Akron[149] | September 12 – October 24, 2024 | 1,241 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
OnMessage Inc. (R)[150][G] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 3%[p] | 3% |
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[151] | October 10–21, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 1%[q] | 7% |
ActiVote[152] | September 23 – October 20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
Morning Consult[144] | October 6–15, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 6% |
The Washington Post[153] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 1%[r] | 3% |
1,002 (RV) | 48% | 47% | 1%[s] | 4% | |||
Marist College[154] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | – | 2% |
1,511 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1%[t] | 2% | ||
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[155] | September 18–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
NYT/Siena College[156] | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
687 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | ||
ActiVote[157] | August 16 – September 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
RMG Research[158][H] | September 18–20, 2024 | 781 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 5%[u] | – |
Morning Consult[144] | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Morning Consult[159] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
SoCal Strategies (R)[160][I] | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[161][J] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
ActiVote[162] | July 20 – August 12, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52.5% | 47.5% | – | – |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[163][K] |
July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 1% | 11% |
Remington Research Group (R)[164][L] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 7% |
Marist College[165] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
National Public Affairs[166] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
Primary elections held | |||||||
Mainstreet Research/FAU[167] | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% |
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 12% |
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 20% |
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 34% | 6% | 21% |
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% |
Emerson College[168][M] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | – | 26% |
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Ohio Northern University[169] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% |
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Matt Dolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/FAU[167] | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 12% |
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 39% | – | 18% |
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 34% | 7% | 22% |
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% |
Emerson/WJW-TV[172] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | – | 22% |
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
Ohio Northern University[173] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% |
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Frank LaRose (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University[90] |
March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% |
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 12% |
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% |
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 33% | 7% | 21% |
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV[172] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | – | 24% |
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Ohio Northern University[173] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% |
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Joel Mutchler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions (R)[107][E] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bernie Moreno | 2,857,383 | 50.09% | +3.51% | |
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | 2,650,949 | 46.47% | −6.93% | |
Libertarian | Don Kissick | 195,648 | 3.43% | +3.43% | |
Write-in | 640 | 0.01% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 5,704,620 | 100.00% | |||
Turnout | 69.91% | +15.26 | |||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Ashtabula (largest city: Ashtabula)
- Erie (largest city: Sandusky)
- Lake (largest city: Mentor)
- Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
- Ottawa (largest city: Port Clinton)
- Portage (largest city: Kent)
- Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
- Wood (largest city: Bowling Green)
By congressional district
[edit]Moreno won 9 of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.[175]
District | Brown | Moreno | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 54% | 43% | Greg Landsman |
2nd | 29% | 67% | Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress) |
David Taylor (119th Congress) | |||
3rd | 71% | 26% | Joyce Beatty |
4th | 34% | 62% | Jim Jordan |
5th | 38% | 58% | Bob Latta |
6th | 37% | 60% | Michael Rulli |
7th | 48% | 49% | Max Miller |
8th | 40% | 57% | Warren Davidson |
9th | 48% | 47% | Marcy Kaptur |
10th | 49% | 48% | Mike Turner |
11th | 78% | 19% | Shontel Brown |
12th | 36% | 60% | Troy Balderson |
13th | 52% | 44% | Emilia Sykes |
14th | 44% | 52% | David Joyce |
15th | 47% | 49% | Mike Carey |
Notes
[edit]- ^ If the appointed Senator will replace Vice President-elect JD Vance from the other seat on or before the start of the 119th Congress, will be ahead of Moreno, depending on the timing of such appointment.
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
- ^ $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
- ^ $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
- ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
- ^ Joel Mutchler with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
- ^ Joel Mutchler with 0%
- ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
- ^ $4,500,838 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ Kissick (L) with 3%;"Other" with <1%
- ^ Kissick (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Did not vote for Senator" with 1%
- ^ "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
- ^ "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
- ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Won't Vote" with 5%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Center for Election Science
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ^ Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- ^ Poll sponsored by WGW-TV
References
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Mark Kvamme, a Columbus venture capitalist and former JobsOhio CEO, has sometimes been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024. But 'that's not going to happen,' Kvamme told Capitol Letter on Monday. Kvamme said he's instead backing Cleveland car dealer/2022 U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno
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'Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics,' Scott Guthrie, Mandel's longtime political aide, wrote in a text message responding on his behalf.
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He decided against running in the 2022 Senate race won by Vance, and he's not gearing up to run for Senate next year.
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- ^ FOX 8
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- ^ a b Tobias, Andrew J. (September 15, 2023). "Ohio redistricting still held up over GOP leadership squabble: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
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- ^ Kassel, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Bernie Moreno's Senate candidacy to test MAGA strength in Ohio". Jewish Insider. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
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- ^ a b Gomez, Henry J. (January 8, 2024). "Jim Jordan endorses Trump-backed Bernie Moreno in messy Ohio Senate primary". NBC News. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
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'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said.
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The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate
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The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race.
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ a b Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University - ^ a b c d East Carolina University
- ^ a b c d SurveyUSA
- ^ a b c d Emerson College
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
- ^ a b c d Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
- ^ co/efficient (R)
- ^ Emerson College/WJW-TV
- ^ a b c d e Data for Progress (D)
- ^ Ohio Northern University
- ^ Ohio Northern University
- ^ Suffolk/USA Today
- ^ a b c d East Carolina University
- ^ a b Causeway Solutions (R)
- ^ "Secretary LaRose Confirms Statewide Candidates Qualified To Appear on November 5th General Election Ballot". Ohio Secretary of State. August 23, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "November 5, 2024 General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
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- ^ "Republican Governor Bob Taft Endorses Sherrod for Reelection". Mercer County Outlook. October 20, 2024. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
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- ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Sherrod Brown for Reelection". Giffords. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
- ^ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Sherrod Brown for United States Senate". www.actorsequity.org. Actors' Equity Association. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Ohio | CWA Endorsed Candidates | Communications Workers of America". cwa-union.org. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
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- ^ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate for Ohio". John Bolton PAC. September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
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- ^ "College Republicans of America is proud to be endorsing 𝗕𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗼 for U.S. Senate in Ohio".
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ RealClearPolitics
- ^ 270toWin
- ^ TheHill/DDHQ
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ AtlasIntel
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ Miami University
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ J.L. Partners (R)
- ^ University of Akron
- ^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
- ^ Bowling Green State University/YouGov
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ The Washington Post
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Bowling Green State University/YouGov
- ^ NYT/Siena College
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ SoCal Strategies (R)
- ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) - ^ Remington Research Group (R)
- ^ Marist College
- ^ National Public Affairs
- ^ a b Mainstreet Research/FAU
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Ohio Northern University
- ^ a b c Emerson College
- ^ a b c Suffolk University
- ^ a b Emerson/WJW-TV
- ^ a b Ohio Northern University
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- ^ "2024 U.S. Senate Election in Ohio: Official Results".
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites